Wednesday, May 11, 2022

It's scary when cyclone forecast tracks go awry (Cyclone ASANI -11May2022)

Having tracked cyclones and storms on the internet for decades now, I almost believe forecast tracks these days are infallible - track predictions are so accurate today that it seems that scientists can guide the storm to where ever they want.
So it was strange that in 2022 some track predictions went awry. On 03Mar and 22Mar2022 two depressions which were supposed to intensify into cyclones in the Bay of Bengal withered away and never became cyclones.
Now Cyclone ASANI which was supposed to head to towards the north Bay of Bengal has steadfastly remained anchored to south east of VIZAG (as on time and date of writing). JTWC has changed its forecast track and seems more or less correct now. IMD forecasts still predict movement towards the northeast - which may eventually be correct but not in the time span predicted.
So my faith in the total infallibility of storm track predictions is suddenly shaken.

So there was a goof up

Update: ASANI - A cyclone with a mind of its own

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

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