Tuesday, May 31, 2022

The 30May2022 storm over Delhi which gave No Warning

Yesterday (30May2022) at around 4pm a fierce storm hit Delhi and parts of the NCR causing two fatalities and quite a bit of damage.

As per news reports the storm gave no warning (see Times of India excerpt below)

Also placed below are satellite IR images from IMD from 2.15pm which clearly shows clouding due west of Delhi intensifying and moving east until it envelopes the entire NCR and moves further east

A senior meteorologist has this explanation
'Yesterday's(30May2022) Thunderstorm was expected for Delhi under the influence of induced circulation and trough. WD was moving at higher latitude.
It was difficult to pinpoint the onset timing. However morning forecast was for duration 1700 to 2000h.
At 1442 IST doppler radar shown formation of convective cells 70-80Km south of Delhi. After 10 minutes a cell formed west of Delhi at 70Km distance. The expected speed of movement was 70Km/hr. So the strike time for Palam is around 1600h.
Thus it gave very short notice than we would have loved.
Satellite images are more than half an hour delayed image hardly can be used for pinpointed forecast. Doppler radar delay time is about 15 min'

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

Rainfall data of April2022 of some towns of Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya


What was very evident in the rainfall of April 2022 was that Darjeeling and Kalimpong districts were deficient in rainfall as were South and West districts of Sikkim.
In North Bengal, areas which received a large surplus of rainfall were Jalpaiguri and Cooch Behar districts whereas the hilly areas of Sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) remained dry and similarly East Sikkim and North Sikkim went surplus.

Praful Rao with Shreya Gurung
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling -Sikkim Himalaya

STH Activities: Participating in Darjeeling Himalaya Initiative's 'Call of the Mountains' event :30May2022

SaveTheHills has long been a member of the Integrated Mountain Initiative (IMI) and is a member of the state chapter of IMI which is the Darjeeling Himalaya Initiative (DHI). We have participated in a number of events over the years related to (mainly) environmental issues of the Himalayas and yesterday we took part in the 'Call of the Mountains' (CoMs)event at Little Tibet hotel in Darjeeling.
Our theme for CoMs anchored around food and was ‘Changing food and food systems of the Darjeeling Himalayas’ and I can’t tell you how relevant this topic is.
Every time I sit down for a meal with my 6 yr.old granddaughter, I am painfully reminded how the frontal assault by multinational food companies have altered our food habits in the mountains. She steadfastly refuses to eat any wholesome home food and is almost addicted to packaged foods and cereals. Not only are these foods poor substitutes for freshly cooked home food, they also generate nightmarish quantities of plastic waste.
CoMs was attended by around 35-40 people including some from the Darjeeling Municipality, SHGs, Homestay organizers, and NGOs

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling Sikkim Himalaya

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

It's scary when cyclone forecast tracks go awry (Cyclone ASANI -11May2022)

Having tracked cyclones and storms on the internet for decades now, I almost believe forecast tracks these days are infallible - track predictions are so accurate today that it seems that scientists can guide the storm to where ever they want.
So it was strange that in 2022 some track predictions went awry. On 03Mar and 22Mar2022 two depressions which were supposed to intensify into cyclones in the Bay of Bengal withered away and never became cyclones.
Now Cyclone ASANI which was supposed to head to towards the north Bay of Bengal has steadfastly remained anchored to south east of VIZAG (as on time and date of writing). JTWC has changed its forecast track and seems more or less correct now. IMD forecasts still predict movement towards the northeast - which may eventually be correct but not in the time span predicted.
So my faith in the total infallibility of storm track predictions is suddenly shaken.

So there was a goof up

Update: ASANI - A cyclone with a mind of its own

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

Sunday, May 8, 2022

STH Stormwatch : First REAL CYCLONE in the Bay 'ASANI' is born

 As earlier said, STH uses WhatsApp, a very popular and versatile social media platform to disseminate information and warnings on hazards in this area as such our activity on this blog is minimal and restricted to disbursing rainfall records, information on major landslide activity and keeping a record of STH activities.
As regards storms in the Bay of Bengal, two earlier depressions which we made note of, fizzled out and never became full blown cyclones. In fact the one which dissipated over Myanmar on 23Mar2022 was supposed to have become Cyclone ASANI.
We are tracking and updating members of STH's HAZARD ALERT WhatsApp group continuously on the progress of the cyclone.

Update on the Cyclone tracks

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya