Climate Change (Input 2) - Insights from a recent paper : 'Anthropogenic footprint of climate change in the June 2013 Northern India flood'

 Synopsis of the Report :-

1. During 13 –17 June 2013, heavy rainfall occurred in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand and led to one of the worst floods and landslides in history, resulting in more than 5000 casualties and a huge loss of property. This event also affected other parts of India including Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, as well as western Nepal and parts of Tibet.

2. In a study by scientists, meteorological and climatic conditions leading up to this rainfall event in 2013 and similar cases were analyzed for the period of 1979–2012.

• Using complex meteorological models to study natural and anthropogenic influences as well as the role of the long-term climate trends on rainfall in the region it was found that:-  Northern India has experienced increasingly large rainfall in June since the late 1980s.
•  The increase in rainfall appears to be associated with a tendency in the upper troposphere towards amplified short waves.
•  The phasing of such amplified short waves is tied to increased loading of green-house gases and aerosols.
•  In June2013, 60–90 % of the rainfall amount was attributed to post-1980 climate trends with another study revealing that though this rainfall was at least a century scale event, the probability for such an incident recurring has increased in the present climate compared to that of pre-industrial times.

3. The study also found that such heavy rainfall and widespread flood events have become increasingly frequent in northern South Asia :-

•  In July2010, an extreme rainfall event in northern Pakistan resulted in floods that killed about 3000 and affected around 20 million people.

• More recently (2–6 September 2014), some regions in India (Jammu and Kashmir) and Pakistan (Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Punjab) suffered extreme floods caused by heavy rainfall which killed more than 500 people.

4. The study found that increased levels of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the post-1980 period have caused changes in the upper troposphere and that as a result of anthropogenic climate change, the circulation structure has been modified in such a way that it significantly aggravates rainstorm occurrences in northern South Asia, hence increasing the severity of floods.
5. Also, the occurrence of this June 2013 event during pre-monsoon season in northern South Asia, along with the circulation and precipitation trends in June, calls for the adaptation of risk management strategies in the face of increasingly frequent and strong rainstorms outside the core monsoon months (July–August). Adaptation measures such as developing strategies and policies for flood management in the face of climate-related extreme events are urged.
6. In addition, the amplified upper-level stationary waves and associated dynamics, as revealed in this study, will need to be represented accurately in the forecasting tools revealed in the post-1980 trends is attributed.

The full paper is available here
For animation of the cloud movements of the 'Uttarakhand Cloudburst' see here

" It appears that the increase in aerosols due to pollution, combined with changes in the jet stream due to increasing greenhouse gases, have made June events like the 2013 flood more likely to occur since 1988."
- Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology, wunderground.com

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Focus on Uttarakhand

"I do believe that the time has come for a paradigm shift in disaster management from a 'relief-centric' and 'post-event' response, to a regime that lays greater emphasis on preparedness, prevention and mitigation"

-  Dr Manmohan Singh

Prime Minister
1st India Disaster Management Congress (29Nov2006)

Vigyan Bhavan

New Delhi

STH has been following the events in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh (HP) states of India closely.
The death toll has notched up steadily and now stands at 130 with 500 people missing and  73,000 (many of them pilgrims visiting  holy Hindu places in the mountains) stranded at many places.
Here are some facts on the rainfall :-

•  Most of the rainfall came down between 15-17Jun2013.
•  Dehradun recorded an astounding 338mm of rainfall in 24hrs on 17Jun2013 (see AWS data above).
• For the period 01Jun-18Jun2013, Uttarakhand rainfall was 440% above the normal and that of HP was 316% above normal (see map above). 
• In these 18 days, Uttarakhand and HP have received more than 31% and 20% of the rainfall for the entire 4 month monsoon period.
• The monsoons have just started and we still have more than 3 months of heavy rains ahead and extreme events, the world over are becoming more frequent!

Having followed this keenly, I am filled with a sense of dread because we went thru this entire grim scenario last year when Uttarakhand was battered by rain and landslides in August and Sep2012.
Meanwhile, the blame game has started. But living in a land where destiny, fate and karma can just as easily be held culpable, I doubt if we will ever get down to a more serious way of managing our disasters.
Pity, we never seem to learn and the PM's wonderful words, spoken 7 yrs ago in the 1st India Disaster Congress ring hollow.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong

Killer landslides of the future : Darjeeling (30May2013)

"I fear that we will see a legacy of landslides in the urban areas of Asia over the next decade as a result of the incredible rate of urbanization in Asia." -  Professor Dave Petley, BSc (Hons) AKC PhD FRGS FGS ILTM CGeo, Univ of Durham (UK)

 

Rain Death : an excerpt from The Telegraph (31May2013)

Darjeeling, May 30:

Subhawana Chhetri, 21, was killed when a wall collapsed during heavy rainfall at Himali Goan in Singamari near here around 2pm today. “She was trying to fill up a drum with rain water when a retention wall collapsed and she came under it,” said a relative.

A student of Loreto Convent, Sheetal Thapa, 17, was injured in a mudslip at Rose Bank. “The Class XII girl was partially buried in a mudslip when she was on her way to school around 7.30am. Local people pulled her out,” said an official of the district administration.
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Comment by Praful Rao, Kalimpong

The fatal landslides shown above are now a familiar sight ( see 1 and 2) :-
Their characteristics are :-

a) They are relatively small landslides or slips.

b) The human footprint is writ large in the cause of the slides - most often they are caused by faulty drainage or lack of any drainage.

c) They take place in an urban setting like the one seen above.

d) They kill people.

e) We can do a lot to mitigate or prevent  these killer  landslides but tragically no one is really bothered.
f) What is scary is that the monsoons have not even reached us (officially they should be over us on 05Jun2013) and we have at least 4 months of rain ahead of us!

• Photo credit : Sanjit Nandi, Himalaya Darpan