STH storm watch : Another LOPAR in the northern Bay of Bengal

After a relatively quiescent period through the monsoons, in Oct we are seeing a cauldron of activity in the Bay of Bengal with yet another low pressure area (LOPAR) brewing, this time off the coast of Myanmar and shifting slowly towards Bangladesh and W Bengal.
All this is not too good news for us living in the Darjeeling / Sikkim Himalaya and brings back memories of the 1968 disaster which also occurred in early October of that year.

Comment by Praful Rao on 12Oct2012

As a part of STH storm watch we monitor the activity in the Bay of Bengal continuously during the monsoons and I kept a close track of this low as it formed and then gradually shifted on a north-westerly track towards Bangladesh and southern W Bengal.
Since the storm was never categorized as anything more than a "well marked low pressure" very little warning about it was given both in W Bengal and Bangladesh as such I was shocked to read about the devastation, death and havoc it caused in Bangladesh. You can read about it here
But perhaps the silver lining in all this is that even an ordinary person like me can make use of the tools made available by technology today to effectively monitor adverse weather fairly accurately and obtain advance information and warning about it .

Praful Rao

STH storm watch: The LOPAR persists

Almost 2 days after STH first observed and reported (by telephone and SMS to certain key Disaster Management organizations) the development of a low in the north  Bay of Bengal , the LOPAR (low pressure area)  still ominously persists.

Praful Rao

STH Storm Watch : First Low Pressure Area of monsoon 2012 forms in the Bay of Bengal

Excerpt from IMetD (Kolkata) website

Main synoptic features based on 0830 hrs IST Observations dt.06.10.2012
Under the influence of Upper-air Trough over North Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area has formed over North Bay of Bengal adjoining areas. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 2.1 km a.s.l.

Comment by Praful Rao
The activity in the Bay of Bengal has been unusually quiet during the monsoons of 2012 with no lows, depressions or cyclones forming.
STH monitors the activity in the Bay on the internet and reports all adverse weather activity with a view to provide early warning.
On 06Oct2012, I MetD is reporting formation of the first low pressure area of the season in the Bay of Bengal.

Rainfall stats, Darjeeling dist Sep2012

Sep 2012 was a month of unusual rainfall activity with the first and last two weeks of the month being totally deficient in rain and almost 80% of the monthly rainfall ( 410mm) crashing down between 11Sep and 17Sep2012.
This rainfall caused landslides all over the district but there were no fatalities.
Fatalities occurred in North Sikkim however, when heavy rainfall there persisted well into the third week of Sep2012.

Praful Rao

From Sikkim today : 24Sep2012

Photo credits : Mr Wangchuk Dorjee
                    : Mr Chewang Lepcha


Praful Rao

Fatal landslide in N Sikkim : 24 dead on 22Sep2012

Comments by Praful Rao
We have been witnessing an extraordinary rainfall pattern over the last few weeks in this region.
In Kalimpong, we were terribly deficient in rain  from 01-09Sep2012 but between 10-17Sep2012 due to the monsoon trough shifting close to us and an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand, we received around 84% (343mm) of our monthly rainfall for Sep (410mm) in just 7 days and by 20Sep we crossed out monthly average.
What is worrisome is that this intense rainfall comes at the end of the monsoon season when the earth is totally saturated with water -  creating an ideal recipe for landslides.
Sikkim receives much more rain than Kalimpong and I do know that this month they have gone well past the monthly average there.
Placed above is the IR image of 22Sep2012  of 1600hrs (ie of yesterday when the landslide/ flashflood occurred) which shows dense clouding over Sikkim.

National Conference on Disaster Management 17-18Sep2012, Gangtok Sikkim

I had the privilege of attending  Day-II (18Sep2012) of the two day National Conference on Disaster Management at Chintan Bhavan, Gangtok. The conference was organized by Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority to mark the first anniversary of the 18Sep2011 Sikkim earthquake and as such was focused more or less totally on earthquakes.

I was, however allowed to talk on landslides and extreme weather events like the recent Sept rains which dumped 84% of the monthly rainfall in just one week.

The conference had delegates and speakers from Bihar, Odissa, Manipur and representatives from UNDP, UNICEF, IITs, NDMA, NDRF, officers of the army, BRO, para military or and many more organizations.

The keynote address on Day-1 was given by Shri KM Singh, Member NDMA and on Day-II by Shri Karma Gyatso (IAS), Chief Secretary, Sikkim.

Some of the outcomes of Day-II were :-

1. 18Sep would be observed as “Disaster Reduction Day” in the state of Sikkim from now on and one year (ie Sep2012-Sep2013) would be observed as “Preparedness Year”.
2. Special importance would be given to school safety and disaster management studies would be introduced into school curriculum without delay.
3. Similarly safety of hospitals and other life line structures would be given paramount importance.
4. The socio-economic aspects of the 18Sep2011 earthquake would also be studied.
   
   
   Praful Rao

A day of rain & our frailty exposed

1. Between 13Sep afternoon & early14Sep2012, an upper air cyclonic circulation together with the monsoon trough lying near the foothills of our region (see satellite image above) dumped nearly 160mm of rain in Kalimpong.
2. This rainfall amounting to nearly 40% of the normal monthly rainfall (410mm as per IMD) for the month of Sep, grossly exposed how unprepared and frail we were:-
a) A landslide at the old Leprosy hospital, Kalimpong area has compelled the administration to evacuate a village (Chota Bhalukhop) directly below it since more rain is forecast tonight (see slide 2 from top).
b) Rock and debris brought down by a slide at Mahakal dara had blocked the road to the village and rocks were still hurtling down even as I photographed villagers there. (see slide 3 from top).
c) At East Main road, Kalimpong a slide which took place at 2am this morning had destabilized the foundation of 5 houses. The distraught families were talking of moving to a school tonight.
(see slide 4 from top).
d) At 14th Mile in Kalimpong, the jhora or mountain rivulet had pulled down parts of the mountain side and also caused severe subsidence in parts of the Kalimpong - Algarah road. (see slide 5 from top).
e) Again at East Main Road a bamboo thicket next to a church had collapsed, pulling down the foundation (see slide 5 from top).
f) At Bara Bhalukhop 2 houses were partially damaged by slides.
2. The only saving grace, was there were no casualties.

Praful Rao

Rainfall stats, Darjeeling district : Aug2012

The monsoons have been unusually mild this year and Aug2012 was another month of deficient rainfall in this region (along with May/Jun2012).
What is also strange is that thus far, there has been no major weather activity in the Bay of Bengal and as such we have not observed any low pressure/depressions or cyclones in the bay during this entire season.

No major landslides took place in the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya in Aug2012
Praful Rao

New study (2012) reveals landslides kill 10X more people than previously thought

Studies done by Dr David Petley of Durham University (UK) have revealed that the number of deaths caused by landslides is almost ten time more than previous estimates.
Stating that "global loss of life from landslides is poorly quantified", Dr Petley's study done over a seven year period (2004-2010) has found that as many as 32,322 people may have perished in 2620 fatal landslides during this time as against an earlier estimate of 3000-7,000.
Quoting Dr Petley, "The upshot is a lack of quantification and thus appreciation of the true impacts of landslides, resulting in poor prioritization of global-scale landslide research and mitigation".
What should worry those of us living the Himalayas is that in the above map showing the spatial distribution of fatal landslides, the cluster of black dots is the thickest in our region (ie "Along the southern edge of the Himalayan Arc"), yet our efforts towards managing this disaster form remains largely academic (being confined to the hallowed confines of IITs and other scientific institutions/departments) with virtually no work being done at the grassroots level ie where the landslides are killing people.

Praful Rao

STH would like to thank Dr David Petley for sharing  his article entitiled "Global patterns of loss of life from landslides" article with us.