All about the SW Monsoons : Project BoBBLE launches off tomorrow

“The Indian monsoon is notoriously hard to predict. It is a very complicated weather system and the processes are not understood or recorded in science. "
                                        - Prof Prof Adrian Matthews (Univ of East Anglia, UK)

Project BoBBle

The project called the Bay of Bengal Boundary LayerExperiment (BoBBLE) aims for a better understanding of the actual physical processes so as to ultimately create more accurate forecasts.
Researchers from University of East Anglia and Reading (UK) and the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) in Southampton along with scientists from four Indian institutions: the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (CAOS) Bangalore, the Indian National Centre for Climate Information Services (INCOIS) Hyderabad , the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) NOIDA NCR and the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) Chennai, will embark on June 24 from Chennai on the Indian research vessel Oceanographic Research Vessel ORV Sindhu Sadhana.
Simultaneously other researchers from India and the University of Reading will fly out in a British research aircraft to make observations in the atmosphere. The team will spend a month at sea – with data from the 250-mile stretch of international water beamed back to using mobile phone signals daily. Scientists from the University of East Anglia (UEA) will release underwater robots to monitor how ocean conditions influence monsoon rainfall. Researchers will use this data to create computer models of the ocean to determine how it affects weather systems and rainfall over India. - full article

Highlights of 2nd Long Range Forecast update (02Jun2016) issued by IMD

• Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be ABOVE NORMAL (>104% to 110%) of long period average (LPA)
• Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106 % of the long period average with a model error of ±4%.
• Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 108 % of LPA over North, West India, 113 % of LPA over Central India, 113% of LPA over South Peninsula and 94 % of LPA over North East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
• The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 107% of its LPA during July and 104 % of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %.  

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Good news for Darjeeling -Sikkim Himalaya : Landslide Prediction Study by Ulster University in early 2016.

Ulster University (UK) has secured funding for a new study focusing on landslide prediction in the Indian Himalayas, which will use novel techniques to help predict massive landslide disasters and save lives.

The team of researchers from Ulster University, and other collaborators, will use their expertise in sensor development, landslide physics and impacts of hazardous weather throughout the project. They will explore state of the art technical and functional requirements for a novel landslide prediction system using low-cost, high-density sensor networks and smart landslide prediction techniques.

India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI) and is supported by the Department for Employment and Learning. It was secured in close collaboration with key project partners including the University of East Anglia, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India Institute of Technology Hyderabad and University College London.

Ulster University's Professor Gerard Parr said: "This specific study will focus on predicting massive landslides due to extreme weather events in remote mountainous areas in the Indian Himalayas, namely in the Darjeeling region where unfortunately landslides have historically claimed many lives and damaged infrastructure.
"The results of this study will not only help to underpin critical landslide prediction solutions for remote rural Indian communities but for other countries around the world, including the UK, where flooding and extreme weather conditions can result in landslides and also threaten human life, lifestock and economic infrastructures.
"We are delighted to have been successful in our bid for this Feasibility Study which builds on aspects of our previous research within the India-UK Advanced Technology Centre (IU-ATC), the largest ICT project of its kind between UK and India."
The project will be led by Professor Gerard Parr together with colleagues Professor Sally McClean, Professor Bryan Scotney and Professor Philip Morrow from the Information and Communications Research Group at Ulster University's Coleraine campus. They will be joined by Professor Stephen Hailes who is Chair of Wireless Systems and Deputy Head of Department of Computer Science at University College London, Prof Dave Petley (University of East Anglia- UEA) Pro-Vice Chancellor for Research and Enterprise at UEA and a world authority on Landslide Physics; Dr Christopher Kilburn (UCL) who is the Director of the Aon Benfield Hazard UCL Centre ; Professor Subrat Kar (Indian Institute of Technology New  Delhi) and Professor Uday Desai- Director of Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad. 

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling