STH Activities (29Oct2013) : Disaster Risk Reduction Workshop in Kalimpong in conjunction with State Administration

STH held a DRR (Disaster Risk Reduction) seminar in Kalimpong on 29Oct2013.
The audience comprised of almost 500 students from various schools in the Kalimpong sub-division and we conducted a 90min interactive Q and A session with video breaks covering the cause and effect of various hydrological disaster events (cyclones, cloudbursts,landslides etc) that affect the SHWB (Sub Himalayan West Bengal) region and Sikkim; we also talked about dams and earthquakes. 

We would like to thank the State Administration for organizing the event. 

Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist-Darjeeling,
Email-rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

STH stormwatch : More deadly than Cyclone Phailin - persistent LOPAR over Odisha and Andhra Pradesh

After STH first reported this low pressure area (LOPAR) over Odisha and Andhra Pradesh on 21Oct2013, it has hovered steadfastly over the region dumping record amounts of rain and causing death and devastation far exceeding that caused by Cyclone Phailin which after making landfall quickly moved inland.
One week after our report, the system shows no sign of movement as can be seen in the IR image of 27Oct2013 above - it has also  resulted in unseasonal rains and flooding in Kolkata.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling.

2013 Fedex Award for Innovations In Disaster Preparedness: Results

  

 STH would like to congratulate Habitat For Humanity on the winning the FedEx award for Innovations In Disaster Management in 2013. The award was sponsored by FedEx and InterAction and aimed at recognizing innovative interventions that reduce communities vulnerability to hazards or natural disasters and increases their capacity to prevent or cope with such adverse events.
Applications from all over the world were entertained, India was unique in the fact that it had the most number of applicants (10 submissions / shown in Slide 1). Although STH did not win , we're extremely proud that we were nominated as one of the six finalists and hope to participate in the award in 2014 too. 

For a look at all the applicants and their innovations click here

Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist-Darjeeling,
Email-rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

SAARC seminar on "High Impact Weather Events and their prediction over the SAARC Region" (02-04Dec2013), in New Delhi

The seminar could not be better timed or be more relevant after having gone through Uttarakhand and Cyclone Phailin in this region and huge number of extreme events globally.
STH will attend the event and you can get more details on the seminar here

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Storm watch : 21Oct2013 - Low pressure reported over central parts of south Bay of Bengal

We are now at the end of the cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal with winter right around the corner.2013 saw cyclone 'Mahasen' greeting the monsoon season and lets hope 'Phailin' was farewell to the rain bearing winds which are now on their way out of the sub-continent. Having said this though IMetD reported another low pressure over central parts of South Bay of Bengal on 20Oct2013, excerpts from Bulletin are below :

" The low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood
persists."
" Prediction of meteorological condition :
The low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal would move northwestwards and would intensify into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours."

Mid-Day Update (21Oct2013) 
"The well marked low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood may concentrate into a depression during next 24hrs."

Update on 23Oct2013

A well marked low pressure has formed, likely movement - west northwestwards

(Source : IMetD)
Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist-Darjeeling,
Email: rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

Anatomy of a Storm : Very Severe Cyclone 'Phailin' (08-15Oct2013)

Very Severe Cyclone 'Phailin' - 08Oct-15Oct2013

More PowerPoint presentations from praful rao


SaveTheHills as a part of its 'STH stormwatch' program maintains  a close vigil on adverse weather activities in the Bay of Bengal using the internet since the bay is a notorious hatchery of cyclones.
Over the years we have (when necessary) sent EW messages to alert/warn communities as well as organizations on the position/ movement of major weather systems.
Very Severe Cyclone 'Phailin' has been extensively covered in earlier posts in this blog - this slide show is a collection of IR images made from 08Oct2013 ,(when we first reported on it) until 15Oct2013 when its effect in the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya waned.
This has been made in order to generate awareness on extreme events, the frequency and intensity of which are increasing and which most probably is the result of climate change and human activity.
We hope this and an earlier slideshow will help towards this end.

Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist-Darjeeling,
Email: rohan.rao1313@gmail.com 

What Cyclone Phailin did : Rainfall data goes from 'Scanty' to 'Excess' in Darjeeling in one day

The average rainfall for the month of October of sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) and Sikkim as per IMetD is 154.2mm (source) and Oct 2013 began with an unusually dry period where the first 10days of the month saw 'scanty' rainfall resulting in a 67% deficiency (see top map).
The rainfall dumped by Very Severe Cyclone Phailin changed all this.
Darjeeling (185mm) and Kalimpong (141mm) received the entire months rainfall on 14/15Oct2013 when it rained non-stop for 24hrs and as per the lower map we now have an excess of 145% precipitation.
It has been bone dry since 15Oct2013.
Meanwhile, the gradual withdrawal of the South Westerly monsoon continues over the Indian sub-continent and it should be exiting our region today (19Oct2013), see below :-

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
District Darjeeling

STH stormwatch -15Oct2013 : Feeling Phailin in the Himalayas -2

Very Severe Cyclone Phailin made landfall close to the Andhra/Odisha border on 12Oct2013 at approx 2100h (extensively covered in earlier STH stormwatch series of Oct2013).
Having moved inland it has been downgraded to a low pressure which is located in southwest Bihar (IMetD). Under the influence of this system, moisture laden clouds over the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalayas have brought non-stop rainfall in the region for the last 24h and the rainfall continues as I write.
Rainfall figures from 0700h/ 14Oct to 0700h/ 15Oct2013 are shown below :-
a. Darjeeling  - 185 mm (source : STH ARG in Darjeeling).
b. Kalimpong - 141mm (source : IMD AWS - see above)
c. Siliguri       -   99mm (source : IMD AWS)
d. Gangtok     -   66mm (source : IMD AWS)
e. Gyalsing (W Sikkim) - 72mm (IMD AWS)
So far there are no reports of landslides (undoubtedly due to the less intensity of the rain) but this unseasonal rainfall will certainly cause :
a. Crop damage in this region
b. Flooding in the plains of Bengal.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch: Inconsistencies of Meteorological Science.

Though the track predictions and forecast of IMetD during Very Severe Cyclone Phailin seemed almost flawless, we are now seeing variations in what was predicted and what actually happened.
a. SLIDE 1 above states that the Cyclonic storm much after landfall on 12Oct2013 would move north WESTWARDS.
b. SLIDE 2 concedes the storm (now a deep depression) has infact moved north EASTWARDS and would continue to move in that direction.
In keeping with the heavy rainfall warning  over Darjeeling and Sikkim (in slide2) it has been raining continuously over this area since this morning albeit not too heavily (see IR image above)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch: Feeling Phailin in the Himalayas

 

STH has been following the development and movement of Cyclone Phailin since its inception near the  Andaman Islands on 08Oct2013. Having observed it make landfall in Odisha last evening and move inland, I have been tracking the cloud movement the entire day today and feel rather surprised that the cloud mass from the remnants of Phailin has moved over us in the Sub-Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) and Sikkim.

In keeping with this movement Regional Meteorological Centre Kolkata has issued a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall in our region.

Praful Rao

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch : JTWC issues its final warning on Phailin

The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its last and final warning on Cyclone Phailin which means the storm itself is spent force but the rest of the post disaster work now continues in the affected areas.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling.

STH stormwatch (update) : Cyclone Phailin, after the landfall (13Oct2013.1)

'Very Severe Cyclone' Phailin made landfall almost exactly as predicted around 2100h on 12Oct2013, near Gopalpur. It has moved inland and should be now downgraded to a 'Cyclone'.
As per reports coming in, the damage and certainly the fatalities seems to be much less than expected perhaps because
a. Enough lead time was available to prepare and mobilize forces.
b. Large scale evacuation carried out.
c. Overall preparedness, in terms of storm shelters etc was better.
d. Most importantly and mercifully, the storm itself was of lesser intensity than forecast.
(see Automatic Weather Station Report  of Bhubaneswar agro for rainfall and wind speed records)
While hoping the worst is over, the storm is still potent and very much around and will have to be watched closely and also disaster management in the affected areas will now have to move onto the next phase viz assessment of needs and damage, relief , rehab and reconstruction.
Updates will continue on STH stormwatch.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (update) : Are we under rating Phailin?

Tropical Storm Risk venture a UK based organization has  categorized Phailin as a 'Super Cyclone' (see above); this seems to be more or less in keeping with the report of US Navy's JTWC (excerpt below), which pegs the wind speeds higher than IMetD forecasts :-

"WTIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 85.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT" 

   (130 KT = 240 kmph; 160 KT = 296 kmph) 

Meanwhile at approx 1600h IST, it has started raining in Kolkata which lies on the
periphery of the cyclone, at places moderately and at other places there is a steady 
drizzle. 
The IR image of Phailin at 1600h (IST) is placed below.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling.

STH stormwatch(update) : Red message from IMD plus tracks etc Phailin (12Oct2013.2)

Frantic evacuation efforts are on in the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha which are likely to be affected even as Phailin bears down on the eastern coast of the sub-continent; landfall is expected in 4hrs time.
STH in its "Stormwatch" program first reported on Phailin on 08Oct2013 and has been posting regular updates on it on this blog thereafter.

Technology has, like never before placed tools which give so much advance warning about an impending disaster and judging by the way the governments of AP and Odisha, the Centre, the media, and the many other players involved are going about it - perhaps we will be able to go thru the next 48 hours or so without much loss of life.

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (update): Red message from IMetD on Phailin (12Oct2013.1)

For update 3 on Phailin from Force 13 click on the link on video


Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (update) : Very Severe Cyclone Phailin (11Oct2013.3)

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
District Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (update) : Very Severe Cyclone Phailin (11Oct2013.2)

For those interested in obtaining additional information on the storm, here are some links :-
a. IMetD Cyclone page - you can get the latest bulletin on Phailin as well as the track from IMD.
b. Regional Met Centre at Bhubaneswar.
c. US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) for tracks and updates on the storm.
d. Latest IR images from IMetD satellite Kalpana 1 (updated every 30mins but timing is in GMT).
e. Products from IMetD Doppler radar at Vizag. 
f.  Actual rainfall in Phailin affected areas from IMD weather stations here 
g. Odisha State Disaster Management Authority here
h. NDTVs live blog on Phailin.

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling.

STH stormwatch (update): Very Severe Cyclone Phailin (11Oct2013)

Praful Rao

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling.

STH stormwatch (update) : Cyclone Phailin upgraded to VERY SEVERE CYCLONE

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (update) : The storm gets a name, Cyclone PHAILIN

09Oct2013 : The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a Cyclonic Storm "PHAILIN" which is Thai for "sapphire" (for a comprehensive read on how cyclones are named see here). 

IMetD forecast states :-
"The cyclonic storm, Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwest wards, and lay centred at 0230 hrs IST of today the 10th October 2013 near latitude 14.00N and longitude 92.00E, about 900km southsouth east of Paradip, 950km south east of Kalingapatnam, 1000 km east-southeast of  Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.It would continue to move northwest wards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by night of 12th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph".

The Odisha Government has issued a high alert and cancelled Dussehra holidays for employees in 14 districts (Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Jajpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam and Gajapati districts). District Collectors along with the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force  have been asked to ensure the safety of the people.
In this regard, Odisha has one of the best State Disaster Management Authorities in the country, see here.

STH has been tracking this storm for some days now and it will be 2 more days before it makes landfall. Several points emerge from this :-

• Thanks to advances in technology and at least for hydrological disasters (floods, landslides and even flashfloods) it is possible to get several days advance warning  and it is rare that such an event will occur suddenly and without any notice.
• Again satellite imagery, doppler radar and other techniques can give us largely accurate forecast on the expected intensity of rain and duration.
• Track predications of storms has also become accurate and our observation has been that severe storms have made landfall more or less as predicted.
• What is of essence, therefore is what we do with all this information which is now available to us?
  • Have we trained and prepared for such an eventuality?
  • How good are our defenses to absorb and withstand intense, heavy rainfall for several days?
  • Do we have a volunteer force of young people who can help in evacuation, search and rescue?
  • Have we identified the vulnerable, landslide prone areas and vulnerable sections of society?
  • Can the drainage system in our urban mountain centres handle the huge volumes of water which the storm will dump?
  • Is the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) trained and well equipped?
  • Are back - up generators and battery operated wireless communication gear available at control rooms and life-line structures?

These and many more questions will have to be answered where ever Cyclone Phailin hits the shore in few days time.


Praful and Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
District Darjeeling,
Email- rohan.rao1313@gmail.com  

STH Stormwatch : Updates on DEEP depression in the Bay of Bengal

Source : JTWC and IMetD

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
District Darjeeling

Text book example : How Politics and Politicians impact Management of Disasters.

As I write there is a deep depression brewing up in the Bay of Bengal and in order to ascertain rainfall data associated with the depression (which is likely to be upgraded to a tropical cyclone today), I checked the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) website.
I found the main TRMM website (http://trmm.jpl.nasa.gov/) unavailable and the TRMM website which was available (see above) had a cautionary note on it which said the "data may not be upto date" due to the US Govt shutdown. In fact, the website had information which was 9 days old and its latest images were of Typhoon USAGI of 30Sep2013.
So vital information on Typhoon FITOW (08Oct2013) was missing on the TRMM site as was information on the depression in the Bay of Bengal, slowly working its way up from the Andaman islands to mainland India  - thanks to politics and politicians!
In this context, the Darjeeling hills has been embroiled in  grim political turmoil for several years now and management of the very serious landslide problem of this region has been confined to a tiny, dark corner in the minds of politicians involved.


Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
District Darjeeling

STH Storm watch: Depression over North Andaman sea

"The low pressure area over north Andaman sea and neighbourhood intensified into a depression over north Andaman sea lay centred at 0830 Hours IST near Lat. 12.0°N & Long. 96.0°E. It would intensify into deep depression and further cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move in west­-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during next 72 hours." 
(Source : IMetD)

Futher updates will follow.

Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist-Darjeeling,
Email: rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

STH storm watch: Facts about FITOW and lessons for India

Typhoon FITOW has just made landfall in Fujian province of China, triggering mass evacuations. Here are some facts about the storm:-

• It is named after a flower in Micronesia.
• FITOW is the 23rd typhoon to hit China this year and comes at the end of the typhoon season. Whereas thus far in 2013, the Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea brewed up just one (Cyclone Mahasen) which could have affected the Indian sub-continent.
• The typhoon has caused sea levels to rise by 2m and waves upto 10m at places along the coast - China has issued a RED alert for this storm.
• It has affected half a million people and required the evacuation of more than 250,000 people along the affected areas.
• It comes just weeks after another powerful storm (Typhoon USAGI - the 'Rabbit')  ploughed  through almost the same area.
• Though the economic losses from these storms has been enormous, what is really amazing is that loss of life has been minimal.
  Casualty figures vary but they certainly do not exceed 200 during "monster-storm" USAGI; which talks volumes of the way China has learnt to handle these mega storms.
• Compare this to the more than 5000 missing or dead during the Uttarakhand cloudburst in Jun2013 in India.
  Hello India, shouldn't we be learning something?
  
  
  
  Praful Rao
  Kalimpong,
  Dist Darjeeling
  
  
  
  
  
  

Quake Report : 03Oct2013 - Sikkim

We felt the quake in Kalimpong and it jolted people in Gangtok even harder reviving painful memories of the 18Sep2011 (6.8R) earthquake.
Though no casualties or damage is known so far, what is scary about this quake is how close it was epicentred to heavily populated areas, which makes me ponder about the level of our preparedness to deal with disasters and just how long will our luck last?

Source of report is here

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeeling

Rainfall data for Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim : September 2013

The monsoon season thus far has seen an extreme event (the cloud burst) that devastated Uttarkhand, while the North East including Sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) and Sikkim (which normally receives the highest precipitation in the sub-continent) receiving below normal rainfall. On the contrary, Rajasthan a desert state had excess rainfall.
Total rainfall in the sub-continent has been 6% above normal which has benefited the agriculture sector immensely with increased food production and the monsoon is still very active in many parts of the country (normally the SW monsoons start retreating in mid September).
In September 2013, SHWB and Sikkim saw less than normal rainfall and that has been the trend throughout the monsoon season this year.

Unfortunately even with the less than average rainfall, landslides still seem to find a way of affecting us, with five lives being lost in the village Tamabung (Yuksom - Tashiding constituency)  in West Sikkim on 01Sep2013.

Rohan Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist-Darjeeling,

Email - rohan.rao1313@gmail.com