Climate Change (Input 1) : 2015, the hottest year on record - as per NOAA and NASA

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Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

01Jul2015 : 226mm of torrential rain over a 6 hr period in Darjeeling district

For a hellish 6 hr period Darjeeling district especially Kalimpong was pummeled by torrents of rain starting from approximately 2000hrs.
I watched the clouding as it formed over us and remained almost stationery much like the clouding over Uttarakhand in 2013. Kalimpong received almost half (226mm)the entire July month's average rainfall (548.7mm) in the 6hrs and it is confirmed that that there have been at least 6 deaths in Kalimpong, numerous landslides and all the road links from Kalimpong to Siliguri are now cut off by slides.
The worst part is we have at least 3 months of rainfall ahead.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

September 2014 : Rainfall data of Darjeeling and Sikkim and extreme weather events in Kashmir and Assam

In Sept 2014, rainfall in SHWB and Sikkim went deficient again with no major weather system ie depression or cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal during the month. Consequently there was no major landslide in the area.
Things were very different in Kashmir during the first of the Sept where approx 3000% excess rainfall was recorded at places (see red dots in middle chart), this lead to flooding and landslides on a hitherto unseen scale in the Kashmir valley.
Towards the end of the month, we saw a repeat of this situation in Assam and Meghalaya and excess rainfall exceeding 1500% of normal was seen in some parts of Meghalaya (see red dots in bottom chart)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Storm watch: Depression over North Andaman sea

"The low pressure area over north Andaman sea and neighbourhood intensified into a depression over north Andaman sea lay centred at 0830 Hours IST near Lat. 12.0°N & Long. 96.0°E. It would intensify into deep depression and further cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move in west­-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during next 72 hours." 
(Source : IMetD)

Futher updates will follow.

Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist-Darjeeling,
Email: rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

Excerpt from NDTV : Is India ready for the next big disaster?

You can see the full video here

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Darjeeling district.

Rainfall data Darjeeling district and N Sikkim - Jun2013

Jun2013 was extraordinary; it was the month of the "Himalayan Tsunami" when torrential rains over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh in mid Jun2013, caused unprecedented loss of life and a disaster which the country is still trying to grapple with.
Whilst the rest of the country reported normal to excess rainfall, the north eastern states of India went deficient in rainfall. STH reported the formation of two low pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal, the first weather system eventually reaching the Uttarakhand region in mid Jun2013.
Also, two interesting facts observed in Jun2013 were :-

• The 24hr rainfall over Dehradun on 17Jun2013 (338mm) was more than the entire month's rainfall in Kalimpong for Jun2013.
• In the Darjeeling -Sikkim area, approximately half the month of June2013 was almost dry (less than 5mm rainfall).
  
  
  Praful Rao,
  Kalimpong,
  Dist Darjeeling.
  
  
  
  

Darjeeling & Sikkim - queuing up for the next 'Himalayan Tsunami'

Do you notice the uncanny similarity between images of the 'Himalayan Tsunami' of mid-Jun2013 (placed on the LHS) and those from the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya (on RHS)?

Here are 10 reasons why the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya could also suffer the same fate as Uttarakhand :-
           

• Our geographical location on the southern most part of the Himalayan arc is unique. As such the Darjeeling – Sikkim Himalaya is situated barely 800km north of the Bay of Bengal, which brews up 5-7 cyclones or depressions annually.
• Due to our location, our average annual rainfall is approx 3000mm, double that of Uttarakhand (1523mm) and 3 X the national average.
• Rainfall pattern has shown a perceptible change in the recent past – extremes in rainfall being more the norm than an exception (In May2013 we had double the monthly rainfall but Jun2013 has been largely dry till date)
• We have a long history of landslide disasters viz Sep 1899, Jun 1950, Oct 1968, Sep 2007, Cyclone AILA in May 2009 and 18Sep2011 (earthquake induced).
• Geological Survey of India (or GSI, the nodal Govt. body looking after landslides in India) categorizes our area as amongst the most landslide prone in the country.
• In the recent past, there has been phenomenal developmental activity much of which has been unplanned and haphazard, paying scant heed to building codes etc.
  More than 30 dams have been constructed or are planned in the Teesta river basin.
  Also the tremendous rural to urban migration has resulted in our major towns showing signs of severe distress with basic civic facilities such as potable water, public latrines, solid waste management and most importantly, drainage being on the verge of collapse. Densely populated colonies have sprung up on unstable and unsafe slopes.
  Non-engineered roads constructed on a massive scale all over the region by poorly trained or unemployed petty contractors will be a major cause of landslides in the future.
• Both Darjeeling and Sikkim have large scale influx of tourists, many more than the pilgrims who were caught up in the Uttarakhand disaster.
• Densely populated settlements and towns such as Rangpo, Singtam, Majitar, Melli, Jorethang have comeup along banks of rivers ie Teesta and Rangit.
• As population increases, forest cover has reduced all over the region
• Even after the earthquake of 18Sep2011, disaster management has received little priority in this region.

Photo credits of Darjeeling/Sikkim :
Kundan Yolmo, Sikkim Express, Das Studio (Darjeeling)
Photos from Uttarakhand obtained from the internet.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Darjeeling District.

In the year's beginning - a sombre warning

• Delhi has never been so bone-chillingly cold as it is today. At 9.8 degrees Celsius, the maximum temperature in the (Indian) Capital is the lowest in 44 years.
  - NDTV (02Jan2013).
• Researchers have found that India’s monsoonal rainfall, upon which much of the nation’s agriculture depends, is becoming less frequent and more intense.
  Scientists with the agriculture division of the India Meteorological Department in Pune found that global climate change can cause departures from the historic monsoonal norm, which, on balance would lead to lower yields of rice, maize, cotton, soybeans, and other kharif (monsoonal) crops. During the rabi (dry) season, higher temperatures could cut yields of wheat, potatoes, and vegetables.
  - National Geographic (06Mar2012)
• Kalimpong (Dist Darjeeling, India), in Sep2012, received 84% of the monthly rainfall in just one week (10-17Sep2012) with the remaining 3 weeks being largely dry.
  - STH blog.
• In the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya, we have not had any significant  precipitation (rain/snow) during the winter months for the last 3-4 years and what we are seeing are drought-like conditions for 7months of the year (Oct-Apr) followed by 5 months (May-Sep) of erratic rainfall. As such, looming ahead is a severe water crisis in this region.
  - Observation made locally.
• Also rainfall patterns have changed in the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya , with the continuous, gentle drizzle which so characterized the monsoons in the hills, being replaced by sharper and more intense downpours.(This sort of gels with the findings of researchers in the National Geographic report above).
  Sharp, intense rainfall generates higher volumes of surface runoffs and consequently more erosion and landslides.
  Increased surface runoff also means the underwater aquifers do not get time to be recharged and mountain springs are drying up like never before all along the Himalaya.
  - Observation made locally.
• Weather extremes are not that extreme any more. Heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildfires are the new reality of an ever warming world
   -The Guardian (19Sep2012)
• The first nine months of 2012 were the hottest in the United States on record.
  - Washington Post (30Oct2012)
• 3 of the ten biggest floods in Lower Manhattan since1900 occurred in the last three years… Freak weather seems to be here to stay all over the globe.
  - Fareed Zakaria GPS (CNN, Nov2012,).
• The likelihood of such extreme weather events is increasingly being tied to anthropogenic—or manmade, mostly through overproduction of carbon dioxide—global warming. It’s no longer an abstract idea; it’s being experienced directly and locally, on nearly every level.
  - Storm warnings : Climate Change and Extreme weather (Scientific American, 13Nov2012)
• Researchers know that tropical storms derive their energy from warm waters. That's one reason hurricanes are much more common in the hot tropics. The Atlantic Ocean is about 1°C warmer on average than it was a century ago, in part because of man-made climate change. Warmer waters generally mean stronger storms, and indeed, scientists have agreed that climate change seems likely to lead to stronger and wetter storms, though possibly fewer of them.
  - Time Magazine (Nov2012)
• Climate change has caused sea levels to rise, which made the storm surges and coastal flooding all the more devastating. Overall sea levels have risen by 8 in. (20 cm), and the rate has been accelerating recently.
  - Time Magazine (Nov2012)
• We have a 100-year flood every two years now. We need to make sure that if there is weather like this, we are more prepared and protected than we have been before.
  -Time Magazine (Nov2012).
  
  Praful Rao