Showing posts with label extreme events. Show all posts
Showing posts with label extreme events. Show all posts

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Cyclone Aila (26May2009) vs GLOF (04Oct2023) : Photos of Teesta river at Teesta Bazar

Cyclone AILA was a huge disaster event which impacted Darjeeling- Kalimpong districts between 24May and 26May2009 when it dumped 247mm of rain in Darjeeling in 24hrs. 17 people lost their lives in the storm. STH tracked the cyclone and has blogged extensively about it in May and June2009. (See 1, 2, 3).

In order to understand the magnitude of both these disaster events I have placed photos of the impact on the Teesta river, taken from approximately the same location on the Teesta bridge in May2009 and in Oct2023.

Photos of the Teesta river of 2009 were courtesy Mr Naren Tamang of Kalimpong TV and taken DURING the storm - please note no major dams were operating upstream in the Teesta valley then.

Photos of the GLOF event were taken by me on 10Oct2023, 6 days after the the GLOF event.

Cyclone AILA (26May2009): Photo of homes close to the river bank almost directly below the Teesta bridge. The Teesta - Darjeeling road is intact and was not touched by the river during Cyclone AILA.
GLOF (10Oct2023): Image of almost the same area, 6 days after the GLOF event. Note the level of the river vis-a-vis the level of Teesta -Darjeeling road.
Cyclone AILA (26May2009): Teesta river (looking north). No major dams were operating then and settlements of Teesta bazar near or on the bank were minimal.
GLOF (10Oct2023): Teesta river (looking north). Almost the same scene but 14 years later. Note the density of the settlements on the river bank - many such homes were swept away
Cyclone AILA (26May2009): Photo of Teesta from the bridge (looking south). The Teesta to Darjeeling road (extreme right) is considerably higher than the river and was not damaged by AILA.
GLOF (10Oct2023): Photo of Teesta from the bridge (looking south).The level of the Teesta is so much higher and parts of the Teesta to Darjeeling road are under water.

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya
savethehills@gmail.com
9475033744

Thanks to Naren bhai for the images of Cyclone AILA




Sunday, May 28, 2023

STH Stormwatch :A tale of two cylones - in May2023.

STH has been tracking and reporting on storms for more than a decade even though now we report largely on a What'sApp group called 'Hazard Alerts'.
In May2023, the very quiet seas in the Bay of Bengal and eastern Pacific suddenly became active and brewed several big storms.
Cyclone 'Mocha' which formed in the Bay of Bengal around 08May2023 and we tracked and reported on the storm extensively:-

As I write Typhoon 'MAWAR' has formed in the eastern Pacific but is likely to weaken from a Super Typhoon to a severe tropical storm as is nears land.

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya
savethehills@gmail.com
9475033744

Friday, February 12, 2016

Climate Change (Input 2) - Insights from a recent paper : 'Anthropogenic footprint of climate change in the June 2013 Northern India flood'



 Synopsis of the Report :-

1. During 13 –17 June 2013, heavy rainfall occurred in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand and led to one of the worst floods and landslides in history, resulting in more than 5000 casualties and a huge loss of property. This event also affected other parts of India including Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, as well as western Nepal and parts of Tibet.

2. In a study by scientists, meteorological and climatic conditions leading up to this rainfall event in 2013 and similar cases were analyzed for the period of 1979–2012.
  • Using complex meteorological models to study natural and anthropogenic influences as well as the role of the long-term climate trends on rainfall in the region it was found that:-  Northern India has experienced increasingly large rainfall in June since the late 1980s.
  •  The increase in rainfall appears to be associated with a tendency in the upper troposphere towards amplified short waves.
  •  The phasing of such amplified short waves is tied to increased loading of green-house gases and aerosols.
  •  In June2013, 60–90 % of the rainfall amount was attributed to post-1980 climate trends with another study revealing that though this rainfall was at least a century scale event, the probability for such an incident recurring has increased in the present climate compared to that of pre-industrial times.
3. The study also found that such heavy rainfall and widespread flood events have become increasingly frequent in northern South Asia :-
  •  In July2010, an extreme rainfall event in northern Pakistan resulted in floods that killed about 3000 and affected around 20 million people.
  • More recently (2–6 September 2014), some regions in India (Jammu and Kashmir) and Pakistan (Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Punjab) suffered extreme floods caused by heavy rainfall which killed more than 500 people.
4. The study found that increased levels of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the post-1980 period have caused changes in the upper troposphere and that as a result of anthropogenic climate change, the circulation structure has been modified in such a way that it significantly aggravates rainstorm occurrences in northern South Asia, hence increasing the severity of floods.
5. Also, the occurrence of this June 2013 event during pre-monsoon season in northern South Asia, along with the circulation and precipitation trends in June, calls for the adaptation of risk management strategies in the face of increasingly frequent and strong rainstorms outside the core monsoon months (July–August). Adaptation measures such as developing strategies and policies for flood management in the face of climate-related extreme events are urged.
6. In addition, the amplified upper-level stationary waves and associated dynamics, as revealed in this study, will need to be represented accurately in the forecasting tools revealed in the post-1980 trends is attributed.

The full paper is available here
For animation of the cloud movements of the 'Uttarakhand Cloudburst' see here

" It appears that the increase in aerosols due to pollution, combined with changes in the jet stream due to increasing greenhouse gases, have made June events like the 2013 flood more likely to occur since 1988."
- Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology, wunderground.com

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Monday, December 7, 2015

Chennai Flood Disaster Catastrophe of December 2015-Are you listening? - Dr RK Bhandari

The worst is over and the city of Chennai in the State of Tamil Nadu in India is limping back to normalcy after the unprecedented flood catastrophe of December 2015. The whole country applauds the exceptional grit and grace with which the citizens of Chennai fought the fury of the floods as one single family of friendly strangers! When the Indian Armed Forces, the NDRF Battalions, the Paramilitary Forces, the State Police and the common men intermingled with the victims of the flood-ravaged city of Chennai on the mission to save lives, by heroic deeds they won the admiration and gratitude of the nation as a whole. India can be justly proud of the inspiring examples set out by the rescue teams and the citizens, in the defiance of death and destruction. The ensuing trail of success stories, which will be retold for generations to come, has reaffirmed peoples’ faith in India’s capacity to manage the post-disaster phase of the cataclysmic events.
Now imagine the dreadful scenario in the flood-ravaged Chennai without the timely and decisive interventions of the post-disaster response teams. The loss of lives, the number of those injured, the count of the homeless, trauma of the victims, damages to the infrastructure, the cost of recovery and construction and pressure of demand on local administration would have been several folds higher. On the other hand, imagine the scenario which could have developed to our advantage after implementation of preventive and mitigation measures in tune with the experiences gained and the lessons learned from as many as six major flood disaster events in the last 40 years. The loss of lives, damages to the infrastructure, the hefty relief package of Rs 1940 crores and the astronomical sums of money now required for reconstruction could have been drastically curtailed, if not altogether avoided. We all know that prevention and mitigation pay and yet it is unfortunate that those at the helm of affairs still prefer to pay for the end-of-the-pipe solutions from the public funds at the expense of the basic human needs.
By not taking recourse to the prevention and mitigation route, contrary to the stated policy, even the Central Government does not do justice with its own commitment to the people of India made in the National Disaster Management Act of 2005. The Act, which was enacted about the same time as the last Chennai flood disaster of December 2005, had promised to the nation a paradigm shift from the relief-centric approach to the culture of prevention and mitigation. With ten years of lead time since the last major flood disaster, the State Government was expected to feel the pain of disasters and take the Act more seriously.
Another stated strategy of the Government of India is to shift the focus from development to sustainable economic development. The X Five Year Plan clearly mentioned that the planned expenditure on disaster prevention and mitigation will be coupled with the Calamity Relief Fund. There was a major shift of Focus in the XI plan which laid emphasis on integration of disaster mitigation with development planning. If the government would have taken its own strategy seriously, the severe flooding of the areas surrounding Perumbakkam because of the construction of the IT Corridor on the filled-up lake could have been avoided. The flooding of Mudichur, Velachery, and several other areas are not a matter of surprise to those who Chennai because they had encroached the wetlands and the river basins. The city’s largest mall, Phoenix, is on a lake-bed — Velachery.  In 1976 floods too, Adyar over-topped its banks invading houses by several feet precisely because of the stream encroachment.
There is no denying the fact that for economic and infrastructure development, land has to be found. The national challenge lies in using the land in a manner that construction and mitigation measures are planned, designed and implemented as a single package. This should have been done when the major bus terminal was built in the flood-prone Koyambedu or when the Chennai airport was built on the floodplains of the River Adyar. Building a Mass Rapid Transit System over the Buckingham Canal and several automobile and telecom SEZs and many housing estates, over the erstwhile water bodies, were less of engineering in development and more about the recipe for a disaster. By hindsight, it seems clear that the government should have walked the talk by integrating disaster mitigation with planning for sustainable development. Reportedly over 300 water bodies have already been lost to urbanization and construction. The 16 tanks belonging to the Vyasarpadi chain downstream of Rettai Eri have reportedly met with a similar fate.
All the blame cannot be placed on either the Government or the Extreme Weather Events. We the people are equally responsible for our compromising positions when it comes to our self-interest. Often times, we pressure administration for bending of rules and regulations for our narrow gains. According to a report submitted by CMDA to the Madras High Court, there are over 1.5 lakh illegal structures in the city, hazardous also to the city drainage. When High Court ordered demolition, the people appealed to the Supreme Court and sought stay-orders. Naturally, we need stricter laws and swift disposal of such cases. It is high time people realize that disasters drain our resources, sap our strength, halt the pace of economic development, rob the posterity of India’s cultural heritage and  inflict lifelong suffering on the victims, especially in the low-income group.
Those responsible for the above acts of omission and commission must be held accountable not only for what wrong they did, but also for what they should have done, which they did not do. The professionals who implemented the above projects were responsible for ensuring that the projects themselves do not become a cause of disasters.
Since it is not in our culture to fix accountability, the civil administration, on the predicted lines, did pre-empt inconvenient and hard questions about public safety by declaring the Chennai 2015 floods as a natural calamity and placed the blame entirely on unprecedented rainfall due to Climate Change, completely ignoring the interplay of numerous other causative factors. The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, even without any investigation, reportedly said “Losses are unavoidable when there's very heavy rain. Swift rescue and relief alone are indicators of a good government.” [1] Earlier also, the Chennai floods of 1969, 1976, 1985, 1996, 1998, 2005 and 2015 were attributed to the heavy rainfall events. Does that mean that factors such as unrestrained and unplanned urbanization, non-engineered and illegal construction, encroachment of water bodies and low-lying areas had no role to play?  It is true that the heavy rainfall forced authorities to release 30,000 cusecs from the Chembarambakkam reservoir into the Adyta river over two days, causing flooding and submergence. But the question to ask is why such situations could not have been anticipated and provided for in project design?  How can one explain the flooding of Koyambedu and the neighbourhood other than by concluding that the related storm water drain projects failed to account for the built-environment, the altered urban landscape and the water logging data of the previous cataclysmic flood events?
 It is only when the authorities ignore such ground realities and try to hide behind the Extreme Weather Events as the sole cause that we keep working in the comfort zones of business as usual, take recourse to the obligatory post-disaster relief-centric approach when needed, and keep re-reaffirming our faith in the merit of disaster prevention and mitigation , as parrots do.
There are no simple solutions to the problems of flooding in the city of Chennai which have been allowed to develop over the period of many decades. Instead of overlooking the wrong doings of the past and throwing blame on heavy rainfall, the political masters, bureaucrats, professionals, the civic officials should come out of the denial mode, own the responsibility and concede with humility that they have failed to walk the talk. It is time to learn from the past experiences and put institutional mechanisms and Standing Operating Procedures in place to ensure that disaster mitigation measures get firmly embedded in all the future project designs.
The large scale flood hazard maps and hydrology maps of the City of Chennai should be revised on priority. The corresponding large scale maps should clearly mark problematic areas, buildings and infrastructure at risk. These maps should guide the revision of the second Masterplan prepared by the Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority. Both, the hazard maps and the Masterplan should be independently peer-reviewed, and thereafter the future flood risk scenarios should be projected with sensitivity to Climate Change, highlighting the problem areas in the backdrop of the experiences gained during the December 2015 flooding. The National Guidelines on Flood Management issued by the National Disaster Management Authority in January 2005 would need revision and adoption, mutatis mutandis.
 All the illegal constructions should be demolished by expediting pending court cases.
 Extreme Weather Events and heavy rainfall are going to be matters of concern all the time and should not ever be taken as unforeseen happenings. The extreme rainfall events like the one which pounded the State of Tamil Nadu and triggered the catastrophe will have to fully accounted for while formulating preventive and mitigation strategies. Modern technologies should be deployed to improve weather, rain and flood forecasting.
India has an ambitious blueprint of economic development and one of the high profile programmes is development of Smart Cities. Ponneri of Tamil Nadu has been identified for development as a Smart City. Hopefully, those responsible for its planning carefully study why the airport was closed and several iconic companies had to shut their operations. The functioning of giant software exporters like TCS, Infosys and HCL and automobile giants like Renault Nissan, Yamaha, BMW and Ashok Leyland were also badly affected by the floods. In the fiercely competitive world with international commitments, India cannot afford the repeat of such sad experiences ever again in future. An empowered High Powered Committee should be constituted to approve the plans of Ponneri, and be accountable to the nation.
 Because of the flood catastrophe, leading newspaper, The Hindu was not published for the first time since its inception in 1878. Future Quiz competitions in the schools of Tamil Nadu will make sure that the younger generation remembers the Catastrophic Chennai flood of December 2015 at least for this reason. The Prime Minister of India gave a post-disaster package of Rs 1940 crore against more than Rs 5000 crore sought by the State Government. Why not think of a mitigation package of Rs 20 000 crores to put a lid on such disasters forever and live happily thereafter!
______________________________________________________
Prof RK Bhandari is a distinguished alumnus from IIT Mumbai, a Fellow of Indian National Academy of Engineering  and a recipient of the coveted Varne’s Medal for Excellence in Research and Practice of Landslides.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling


Saturday, May 3, 2014

Monday, January 27, 2014

STH Activities (25Jan2014) - Awareness camp held in CDC (Child Development Center) Bijoy Nagar, Naxalbari.


In an effort to raise awareness amongst the rural community of Naxalbari , STH was in Bijoy Nagar T.E at Naxalbari, North Bengal on 25Jan2014 and held an awareness camp in the CDC (Child Development Center) complex there.
The 20-25 attendees consisted mainly of tea garden workers and a few students. The session was conducted in Hindi and covered DRR (Disaster Risk Reduction) and domestic fire safety.

Special thanks to Mr.Amosh from Compassion for organizing the camp.

Rohan Rao,
Secretary, STH

Kalimpong,
Dist-Darjeeling,
Email - rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

SAARC seminar on "High Impact Weather Events and their prediction over the SAARC Region" (02-04Dec2013), in New Delhi

The seminar could not be better timed or be more relevant after having gone through Uttarakhand and Cyclone Phailin in this region and huge number of extreme events globally.
STH will attend the event and you can get more details on the seminar here

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Saturday, October 19, 2013

What Cyclone Phailin did : Rainfall data goes from 'Scanty' to 'Excess' in Darjeeling in one day


The average rainfall for the month of October of sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) and Sikkim as per IMetD is 154.2mm (source) and Oct 2013 began with an unusually dry period where the first 10days of the month saw 'scanty' rainfall resulting in a 67% deficiency (see top map).
The rainfall dumped by Very Severe Cyclone Phailin changed all this.
Darjeeling (185mm) and Kalimpong (141mm) received the entire months rainfall on 14/15Oct2013 when it rained non-stop for 24hrs and as per the lower map we now have an excess of 145% precipitation.

It has been bone dry since 15Oct2013.
Meanwhile, the gradual withdrawal of the South Westerly monsoon continues over the Indian sub-continent and it should be exiting our region today (19Oct2013), see below :-

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
District Darjeeling

Sunday, July 21, 2013

All about rainfall : From the Telegraph today (21July2013)


North’s rain gain is east’s loss

New Delhi, July 20: A torrential downpour that washed Delhi today and the rainfall that devastated Uttarakhand last month could be portents of shifts in the monsoon’s behaviour that have also shown up as rainfall deficits in eastern India, scientists say.
Eastern India is the only zone among the country’s four meteorological regions that has as a whole experienced deficit rainfall since the monsoon season started this year, while the traditionally arid northwest is unusually wet.
Bengal’s Gangetic plains have had rainfall 30 per cent below the expected average so far, delaying preparation of paddy seedbeds.
While Uttarakhand’s extreme event on June 16-17 may explain its 74 per cent excess rainfall, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and even eastern Rajasthan have recorded high above-average figures.
“India’s north appears to be stealing rain from the east,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a senior atmospheric scientist and programme director at the National Monsoon Mission, a research initiative launched last year by the Union earth sciences ministry.
While the movements of moisture-bearing winds and low-pressure systems may explain the heavy rain in the north, scientists say they are intrigued by recent trends pointing to persistent rainfall deficits in the east.
“We’ve seen rain deficits in parts of the east and Northeast over the past five years but we don’t fully understand the underlying mechanisms or even whether this is a long-term trend,” Rajeevan said. “We’ll need more observations, more research.”

Full article is here

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Darjeeling district

Saturday, July 6, 2013

STH ACTIVITIES : Awareness campaign in Turuk, Sikkim - 04 July 2013


STH has always made an effort to educate the youth, about the hazards of landslides and extreme weather events in the Sub Himalayan region.
On 04 July 2013 STH conducted an awareness camp in Turuk bustee (village) in South Sikkim. There were around 85 people in attendance, most of them  students. STH talked about the recent events in Uttarakhand, cloud burst and a real danger of such an event occuring in this region along with the prevention and mitigation aspects of landslides.
Special thanks to Pastor Mathais Subba of Hyssop Ministries for organizing this camp.


Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling.
rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Focus on Uttarakhand 2


The untold story from Uttarakhand  by Ravi Chopra (Excerpt from 'The HINDU')

The impact of the floods on Uttarakhand’s tourism leads to larger questions of what kind of development Himalayan States should pursue. Before delving into that, it is important to understand the nature of the rainfall that deluged the State. Already several voices are arguing that the deluge is a random, ‘freak’ event. Odisha’s super cyclone in 1999, torrential rains in Mumbai in 2005, and now the Uttarakhand downpour constitute three clear weather related events in less than 15 years, each causing massive destruction or dislocation in India. These can hardly be called ‘freak’ events.
Several reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have repeatedly warned that extreme weather incidents will become more frequent with global warming. We are already riding the global warming curve. We will have to take into account the likelihood of more frequent extreme weather events when planning for development, especially in the fragile Himalayan region where crumbling mountains become murderous.
In the 1990s, when the demand for a separate State gained momentum, at conferences, meetings, workshops and seminars, Uttarakhandi people repeatedly described the special character of the region. Consciousness created by the pioneering Chipko Andolan raised the hopes of village women that their new State would pursue a green development path, where denuded slopes would be reforested, where fuel wood and fodder would be plentiful in their own village forests, where community ownership of these forests would provide their men with forest products-based employment near their villages instead of forcing them to migrate to the plains, where afforestation and watershed development would revive their dry springs and dying rain-fed rivers, and where the scourge of drunken, violent men would be overcome.
Year after year — in cities, towns and villages — they led demonstrations demanding a mountain state of their own. Theirs was a vision of development that would first enhance the human, social and natural capital of the State. Recalling the tremendous worldwide impact of the Chipko movement, Uttarakhandi women dreamed of setting yet another example for the world of what people-centric development could look like.
But in the 13 years after statehood, the leadership of the State has succumbed to the conventional model of development with its familiar and single-minded goal of creating monetary wealth. With utter disregard for the State’s mountain character and its delicate ecosystems, successive governments have blindly pushed roads, dams, tunnels, bridges and unsafe buildings even in the most fragile regions.
In the process, denuded mountains have remained deforested, roads designed to minimise expenditure rather than enhance safety have endangered human lives, tunnels blasted into mountainsides have further weakened the fragile slopes and dried up springs, ill-conceived hydropower projects have destroyed rivers and their ecosystems, and hotels and land developers have encroached on river banks.
Yes, wealth has been generated but the beneficiaries are very few — mainly in the towns and cities of the southern terai plains and valleys where production investments have concentrated. In the mountain villages, agricultural production has shrivelled, women still trudge the mountain slopes in search of fodder, fuel wood and water, and entire families wait longingly for an opportunity to escape to the plains.
Last week’s floods have sounded an alarm bell. To pursue development without concern for the fragile Himalayan environment is to invite disaster. Eco-sensitive development may mean a slower monetary growth rate but a more sustainable and equitable one.
(The writer is Director, People’s Science Institute, Dehra Dun and Member (Expert), National Ganga River Basin Authority)
The full article is here
 Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Darjeeling district.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Focus on Uttarakhand


"I do believe that the time has come for a paradigm shift in disaster management from a 'relief-centric' and 'post-event' response, to a regime that lays greater emphasis on preparedness, prevention and mitigation"
-  Dr Manmohan Singh
Prime Minister
1st India Disaster Management Congress (29Nov2006)
Vigyan Bhavan
New Delhi





STH has been following the events in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh (HP) states of India closely.
The death toll has notched up steadily and now stands at 130 with 500 people missing and  73,000 (many of them pilgrims visiting  holy Hindu places in the mountains) stranded at many places.

Here are some facts on the rainfall :-
  •  Most of the rainfall came down between 15-17Jun2013.
  •  Dehradun recorded an astounding 338mm of rainfall in 24hrs on 17Jun2013 (see AWS data above).
  • For the period 01Jun-18Jun2013, Uttarakhand rainfall was 440% above the normal and that of HP was 316% above normal (see map above). 
  • In these 18 days, Uttarakhand and HP have received more than 31% and 20% of the rainfall for the entire 4 month monsoon period.
  • The monsoons have just started and we still have more than 3 months of heavy rains ahead and extreme events, the world over are becoming more frequent!
Having followed this keenly, I am filled with a sense of dread because we went thru this entire grim scenario last year when Uttarakhand was battered by rain and landslides in August and Sep2012.
Meanwhile, the blame game has started. But living in a land where destiny, fate and karma can just as easily be held culpable, I doubt if we will ever get down to a more serious way of managing our disasters.
Pity, we never seem to learn and the PM's wonderful words, spoken 7 yrs ago in the 1st India Disaster Congress ring hollow.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong