Project SHAMROCC in Kalimpong

Project SHAMROCC, comprising a team of distinguished scientists from the UK and India was in Kalimpong briefly in the first week of Mar2016, with a view to carry out a feasibility study for landslide prediction in the Darjeeling Himalaya, which is one of the most landslide prone areas in the world.
One of the events that was organized during their visit here was a workshop where Dr David Petley, one of the world's leading scientists on landslide hazards gave a talk 'on 'Managing Landslides - Hazards and Risks in the Himalayas'.
We have finally managed to upload the entire workshop on Youtube in two parts for all to view and learn from.




My deep thanks to the SHAMROCC team for their visit here and to Mr Naren Tamang of KTv, Kalimpong for uploading the video.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Good news for Darjeeling -Sikkim Himalaya : Landslide Prediction Study by Ulster University in early 2016.

Ulster University (UK) has secured funding for a new study focusing on landslide prediction in the Indian Himalayas, which will use novel techniques to help predict massive landslide disasters and save lives.

The team of researchers from Ulster University, and other collaborators, will use their expertise in sensor development, landslide physics and impacts of hazardous weather throughout the project. They will explore state of the art technical and functional requirements for a novel landslide prediction system using low-cost, high-density sensor networks and smart landslide prediction techniques.

India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI) and is supported by the Department for Employment and Learning. It was secured in close collaboration with key project partners including the University of East Anglia, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India Institute of Technology Hyderabad and University College London.

Ulster University's Professor Gerard Parr said: "This specific study will focus on predicting massive landslides due to extreme weather events in remote mountainous areas in the Indian Himalayas, namely in the Darjeeling region where unfortunately landslides have historically claimed many lives and damaged infrastructure.
"The results of this study will not only help to underpin critical landslide prediction solutions for remote rural Indian communities but for other countries around the world, including the UK, where flooding and extreme weather conditions can result in landslides and also threaten human life, lifestock and economic infrastructures.
"We are delighted to have been successful in our bid for this Feasibility Study which builds on aspects of our previous research within the India-UK Advanced Technology Centre (IU-ATC), the largest ICT project of its kind between UK and India."
The project will be led by Professor Gerard Parr together with colleagues Professor Sally McClean, Professor Bryan Scotney and Professor Philip Morrow from the Information and Communications Research Group at Ulster University's Coleraine campus. They will be joined by Professor Stephen Hailes who is Chair of Wireless Systems and Deputy Head of Department of Computer Science at University College London, Prof Dave Petley (University of East Anglia- UEA) Pro-Vice Chancellor for Research and Enterprise at UEA and a world authority on Landslide Physics; Dr Christopher Kilburn (UCL) who is the Director of the Aon Benfield Hazard UCL Centre ; Professor Subrat Kar (Indian Institute of Technology New  Delhi) and Professor Uday Desai- Director of Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad. 

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

A warning gone unheeded : 'Nepal capital Kathmandu high risk area for catastrophic earthquake (2013)'

Placed below is an article published in Jan2013.
Kathmandu is one of the most vulnerable cities in the world, also experienced rapid urban development ..
The population has increased from 427,045 in 1991 to 671,805 in 2001 and is projected to touch a figure of 915,071 in 2011 and 975,453 in 2012 ..
Construction of buildings considered too weak to withstand a powerful quake, similar to Haiti catastrophic earthquake of M 7.0 what kill more of 316,000 people ..

Images of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault showed that a segment of it dips downwards by 15 degrees, and is steeper and further north than suggested by previous observations. This dip could rupture and cause an earthquake of magnitude 8 or more, often referred to as a mega earthquake.
The researchers predict that the segment will break over a larger area of the fault and create a larger magnitude earthquake than previously thought.
"The larger the area of the fault that breaks, the more energy is released, and the larger the magnitude of the earthquake,"
The study, presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco earlier this month (7 December), measured ground movements. By placing seismometers closer together in one area, the researchers have been able to produce a more detailed image of the MHT. Klemperer says a big earthquake would start at the top of the sloping segment. "This is in central Nepal — where Kathmandu is — but such a big earthquake would devastate a much larger area." "This would cause huge landslides, some of which would dam rivers, and produce large lakes. There would be catastrophic floods," he says.

"The main area of concern is in central and west Nepal, where there has not been a large earthquake for a long period," Petley told AFP after Sunday's 6.9-magnitude quake damaged hundreds of homes in the east of the country. "This is an earthquake-prone area, so this suggests that there is a large amount of energy stored," he said.
Nepal is a highly seismic region, lying above the collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates that created the Himalayas, and major earthquakes have hit the Kathmandu Valley every 75 years on average over recent centuries.
One quake destroyed a quarter of homes in Kathmandu 77 years ago, and geologists believe the area is at immediate risk of an 8.0-magnitude tremor - ten times the size of last year's Haiti quake which killed more than 225,000 people.
"The building stock is not seismically strengthened, suggesting that in a big earthquake there will be large numbers of building collapses," said Petley, of the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience at Britain's Durham University.
GeoHazards International, a US-based research group, has measured the likely death toll from a quake of 6.0 magnitude or higher hitting cities in Asia and the Americas.
Kathmandu topped the list of 21 cities with 69,000 potential deaths, ahead of Istanbul and New Delhi.
_________________________________________

Above article has been referred by
Prof Malay Mukul,
IIT, (Dept of Earth Sciences),
Mumbai

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch: Inconsistencies of Meteorological Science.

Though the track predictions and forecast of IMetD during Very Severe Cyclone Phailin seemed almost flawless, we are now seeing variations in what was predicted and what actually happened.
a. SLIDE 1 above states that the Cyclonic storm much after landfall on 12Oct2013 would move north WESTWARDS.
b. SLIDE 2 concedes the storm (now a deep depression) has infact moved north EASTWARDS and would continue to move in that direction.
In keeping with the heavy rainfall warning  over Darjeeling and Sikkim (in slide2) it has been raining continuously over this area since this morning albeit not too heavily (see IR image above)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling