How to convert your smartphone into an Early Warning (EW) device

1. I was tracking the storm (Slide 1) over Nepal last evening on this IMD website and had to resist an urge to post it on STH's  'Hazard Alert', What'sApp group because I was not too sure of the movement of the storm.
2. Having tracked storms on broad band internet for over 5 -7yrs now ( see 1, 2), I am cautious about creating panic or apprehension by uploading inaccurate weather forecasts - nevertheless because of the prevailing westerly upper winds, I was more or less certain that the storm would reach us if it did not dissipate elsewhere. Where I was wrong was in the timing - I expected the storm to reach us in 2 hrs.
3. Six hrs later, at 3.30am this morning, I was woken up by the sound of driving rain, followed by loud peals of thunder and lightning. A glance at the IR satellite imagery (Slide 2) on my smartphone told me that the storm had arrived over us.
4. It dumped almost 40mm of rain in as much time which gives an approx intensity of 60mm/hr - an intensity which can trigger off landslides if the precipitation is sustained.
5. But here is the bottom line :-
a. Updated satellite imagery (IMD updates its images every 30mins) together with cloud movement animation and other web - based info (like Lightning Location) can provide us with powerful tools to give us EW info on  storm movements.
b. Major weather events like cyclones and hurricanes give ample warning (5-6 days)
c. Minor weather events like local storms generated by micro-climates are often the only ones which do NOT show up on satellite imagery.
d. I rely a lot on IMD satellite imagery but there are many others which I hop to when IMD website is down (eg. Bangladesh and Nepal meteorological dept websites)
6. While all this is pertinent to hydrological events only, one need not wait for the next BBC weather bulletin to check the forecast
- instead just convert your smart phone into an early warning device!

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

STH stormwatch : Death of a cyclone (31Oct2014)

The top IR images placed clearly shows the death of 'Cyclone Nilofar'.
As per IMetD, the depression shown on the image on the right is expected to 'move northeastwards and weaken into a well marked low over the northeast Arabian sea off north Gujarat coast during the next 12 hrs'.
JTWC also has issued its final warning for the cyclone (below)

Which brings into question what about predicted landfall on 01Nov2014?

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch: Slideshow of Very Severe Cyclone 'Hudhud' in the Bay of Bengal (07Oct2014 till date)

Very Severe Cyclone 'Hudhud' in the Bay of Bengal

More PowerPoint presentations from praful rao

Almost exactly to the day, a year after Very Severe Cyclone Phaillin
(07Oct-15Oct2013) battered the eastern coast of India, and as if resurrecting its ghost Very Severe Cyclone ‘Hudhud’ will be making landfall around Vishakapatnam tomorrow, exactly on the same date that Phaillin did so one year ago.
STH as a part of its stormwatch series maintains, a close watch on the weather activity in the Bay of Bengal and has tracked and plotted all major weather events in the Bay and elsewhere (Uttarakhand cloudburst) over the past few years.
All are recorded on this blog.
STH first reported the formation of a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal on 07Oct2014 and has thereafter maintained a close watch on the development of the cyclone which, today is the full blown 'Very Severe Cyclone Hudhud' which is breathing fire, off the coast of Andhra Pradesh.
This slide show (which is being updated on a daily basis), shows the formation and movement of the weather system from 07Oct2014 and offers other related information.

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (14Nov2013) update : Depression in Bay of Bengal

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (update) : The storm gets a name, Cyclone PHAILIN

09Oct2013 : The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a Cyclonic Storm "PHAILIN" which is Thai for "sapphire" (for a comprehensive read on how cyclones are named see here). 

IMetD forecast states :-
"The cyclonic storm, Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwest wards, and lay centred at 0230 hrs IST of today the 10th October 2013 near latitude 14.00N and longitude 92.00E, about 900km southsouth east of Paradip, 950km south east of Kalingapatnam, 1000 km east-southeast of  Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.It would continue to move northwest wards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by night of 12th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph".

The Odisha Government has issued a high alert and cancelled Dussehra holidays for employees in 14 districts (Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Jajpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam and Gajapati districts). District Collectors along with the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force  have been asked to ensure the safety of the people.
In this regard, Odisha has one of the best State Disaster Management Authorities in the country, see here.

STH has been tracking this storm for some days now and it will be 2 more days before it makes landfall. Several points emerge from this :-

• Thanks to advances in technology and at least for hydrological disasters (floods, landslides and even flashfloods) it is possible to get several days advance warning  and it is rare that such an event will occur suddenly and without any notice.
• Again satellite imagery, doppler radar and other techniques can give us largely accurate forecast on the expected intensity of rain and duration.
• Track predications of storms has also become accurate and our observation has been that severe storms have made landfall more or less as predicted.
• What is of essence, therefore is what we do with all this information which is now available to us?
  • Have we trained and prepared for such an eventuality?
  • How good are our defenses to absorb and withstand intense, heavy rainfall for several days?
  • Do we have a volunteer force of young people who can help in evacuation, search and rescue?
  • Have we identified the vulnerable, landslide prone areas and vulnerable sections of society?
  • Can the drainage system in our urban mountain centres handle the huge volumes of water which the storm will dump?
  • Is the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) trained and well equipped?
  • Are back - up generators and battery operated wireless communication gear available at control rooms and life-line structures?

These and many more questions will have to be answered where ever Cyclone Phailin hits the shore in few days time.


Praful and Rohan Rao,
Kalimpong,
District Darjeeling,
Email- rohan.rao1313@gmail.com  

Watching the weather on the WWW

Having keenly followed the weather and reported the development and tracks of storms using broadband internet for the past 3yrs (as a part of "STH StormWatch" series, see here, here and here), I can confidently say that today, broadband internet places at the hands of ordinary people an extraordinary tool for checking and understanding  what was earlier the exclusive realm of scientists and meteorologists.
Placed below is how I, an untrained layman (with the help of a few very experienced meteorologist friends) watch the weather (in my region) :-
a) I start off here which is a new page for Severe Weather warnings which IMetD has inserted into their home page.

b) I then have a look at this page :-

The 'Main Features' page (below) you gives a wealth of information, inclusive of ACTUAL weather which has occurred all over the country and a meteorological analysis. The latter is important because it tells you what is brewing up and where. The page further will give you more details on weather warnings.

c) Next I usually visit the satellite imagery and check out the Kalpana-1 INFRA RED (IR) channel (below)
IR images provide information about the temperature of the clouds. The coldest (therefore the tallest) clouds such as cirrus, cumulonimbus appear white whereas the warmer clouds will appear grey. Though the images are updated every 30mins, processing them takes a little time so the latest images that you see are around 1hr old.

and the visible channel

d) You can get a fairly good idea on the movement of clouds for the past 3hrs from the GIF animations by IMetD here
e) For more specific information on the weather in your region you may like to go to the IMetD Regional Meteorological Centre websites:-

f) Low pressure areas, depressions and cyclones can be tracked at the IMetD site here but I often get updates from
i. US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre also see here
ii. Pakistan Meteorological Department, IR imagery
Usually, IR images from this site are more current than those from IMD.
iii. Bangladesh Meteorological Department
iv. TRMM
f) Actual rainfall figures are available on an hourly basis from IMD's automatic weather station (AWS) here or from their automatic rainfall gauge stations (ARG) here.

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Uttarakhand Cloudburst Jun2013

Uttarakhand Cloud Burst

 More PowerPoint presentations from praful rao 

Technical advice from Dr B Nandi
About Dr B Nandi :

Dr Nandi is a renowned Aviation Meteorologist in India. He has served Indian Air Force for 33 years in various capacities. He is the founder Director of Centre for Numerical Weather Prediction for Air Force. He is an Alumni of Ramakrishna Mission Vidyapith, Purulia; Ramakrishna Mission College Narendrapur, Kolkata University; Burdwan University and Centre for Atmospheric Science, IIT, Delhi. Currently engaged as Chief  Meteorologist for Indigo Airlines for last 7 years.

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling