Amazing storm activity in the Bay of Bengal in Oct2020

 Although we had minimal rain thus far in Oct 2020, the Bay of Bengal saw a cauldron of activity with numerous storms forming and moving towards peninsular India giving record breaking rainfall in Hyderabad.

 

Earlier, we reported and tracked these storms regularly in this blog in a series called 'STH Stormwatch' but now since we use a WhatsApp group (Hazard Alerts) to disburse information on storms we have discontinued the series.
However, in the interest of recording some of these storms and tremendous activity that took place in the Bay of Bengal I am placing a collage of images and information on the subject most of which we used in 'Hazard Alerts'.
To a lay person like me, I was surprised to find that many of the weather systems in the Bay which affected us had there genesis in massive tropical storms which brewed up in the Pacific and swept across Indo-China. The remnants of these storms intensified in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian sea.

 Weather chart of that time and satellite imagery of the activity in the Bay of Bengal is placed below:

 

Almost the same scenario was repeated around 20Oct except that the depression which formed off the coast of Odisha/Andhra Pradesh tracked NNE and gave heavy rain to the north eastern states and Bangladesh

 

As I write Typhoon 'SAUDEL' has formed in the South China Sea and will again move westwards and by the next week MAY form yet another low pressure in the Bay

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch (24Oct2016) : Storm in bay intensifies into a DEEP depression

Update 1 (25Oct2016) :- Cyclone 'Kyant is born

This is the second cyclone in the Bay in 2016 after Cyclone 'Roanu'

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch (30Jul2015) : The depression intensifies : 'Cyclone Komen' is born

Excerpt from TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN (IMD)

 'THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH WESTWARDS DURING PAST 9HRS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM KOMEN'

STH has been tracking Cyclone KOMEN for several days now, since it first appeared as a low pressure area. This is the first cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal in 2015.
We will continue to post updates.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch(28Oct2014) : Updated track and timeline of Very Severe Cyclone 'Nilofar'

'Nilofar' has now been upgraded to a 'Very Severe Cyclone' and has 'moved north- northwestwards in the past 6hrs'.
Landfall is expected on 01Nov2014 between north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast (around Naliya).

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch: Cyclone Nilofar (update- 27Oct2014)

Websites for storm watch
India Meteorological Department
US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (NASA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (Univ of Wisconsin)
EUMETSAT
US Gov's Aviation Weather Center

Praful Rao,
Kalimponng,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch (26Oct2014) : Cyclone 'Nilofar' is born in the Arabian sea.

Excerpt from IMetD (All India Weather Bulletin)

'The deep depression over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian sea moved slightly northwestwards, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm, "NILOFAR" at 1130 hours IST and lay centered at 1430 hours IST of today, 26thOctober, 2014 near lat.14.1°N and long. 62.0°E, about 1270 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 910 km east south east of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards during next 48 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast during subsequent 72 hours.
It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24hours'
The forecast tracks shown above are from JTWC.

STH will continue monitoring this storm and will post salient updates from time to time, however we will not be posting detailed tracks and movements as we do for storms in the Bay of Bengal which impact the Darjeeling-Himalaya directly.

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Cyclone formation alert in the Arabian sea

IMetD is reporting a well-marked low pressure (see IR image on top of 6.30am today) in the south eastcentral Arabian sea, which is likely to intensify into a cyclone in the next 48h.
JTWC tracks are shown below.
It is amazing that a storm brewing so far away can spew clouding which is affecting us today - as I write it is turning cloudy in the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya (see cloud trail in the IR image on top)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch: Slideshow of Very Severe Cyclone 'Hudhud' in the Bay of Bengal (07Oct2014 till date)

Very Severe Cyclone 'Hudhud' in the Bay of Bengal

More PowerPoint presentations from praful rao

Almost exactly to the day, a year after Very Severe Cyclone Phaillin
(07Oct-15Oct2013) battered the eastern coast of India, and as if resurrecting its ghost Very Severe Cyclone ‘Hudhud’ will be making landfall around Vishakapatnam tomorrow, exactly on the same date that Phaillin did so one year ago.
STH as a part of its stormwatch series maintains, a close watch on the weather activity in the Bay of Bengal and has tracked and plotted all major weather events in the Bay and elsewhere (Uttarakhand cloudburst) over the past few years.
All are recorded on this blog.
STH first reported the formation of a low pressure in the Bay of Bengal on 07Oct2014 and has thereafter maintained a close watch on the development of the cyclone which, today is the full blown 'Very Severe Cyclone Hudhud' which is breathing fire, off the coast of Andhra Pradesh.
This slide show (which is being updated on a daily basis), shows the formation and movement of the weather system from 07Oct2014 and offers other related information.

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Update on depression in Bay of Bengal

• IMetD has upgraded the well-marked low pressure into a depression which would further intensify into a deep-depression within 24h and eventually become a cyclone.
• The JTWC predicted tracks are shown on top.
• The latest IR photo is shown above.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (22May2014 update) : JTWC changes predicted track

For further details go here
Whereas on 21May2014, the depression was seen moving east towards MyanMar, on 22May2014, the projected track shows the storm moving northwest towards Bangladesh and could well affect W. Bengal as well.
This forecast seems in keeping with the meteorological analysis by IMetD (22May2014) in its ALL INDIA WEATHER BULLETIN (Night), which states :-
'The depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hours IST of today, near lat.17.5°N and long. 92.0E, about 650 km north-northwest of Port Blair. It would move north-northwestwards during next 48 hours'

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (07Dec2013) : Severe Cyclone 'MADI' heads north

The depression has now intensified into severe cyclone 'MADI' and  as per IMetD
(evening bulletin of 07Dec2013) :
'it would further intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm within the next 24hrs. It would move nearly northwards very slowly during the next 48hrs and then recurve north- northeast wards'
For those interested in details see here  for IMetD and here for the JTWC updates.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Updates on Cyclone Mahasen (13May2013)

1. Placed from top to bottom are graphic updates from
a) NASA's TRMM 
b) IMetD
c) US Navy's JTWC
2. Further an excerpt from TRMM  is placed below :-

"Monday May 13, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen Rain Moving Into Bay Of Bengal
Tropical cyclone Mahasen is moving through the Bay of Bengal and is predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to impact southeastern Bangladesh and northwestern Myanmar (Burma) in about 4 days."

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong

Update on Cyclone Mahasen from Google Earth and JTWC (US Navy)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong

Fact and Fiction about the Andhra Pradesh floods of 03-05Nov2012 (Excerpt from The Hindu - 07Nov2012)

Needed, a permanent solution

(Editorial on The Hindu is here)

As if the flooding in Andhra Pradesh following the severe cyclonic storm ‘Nilam’ was not bad enough, the State government and the Indian Meteorological Department are now arguing over what actually happened. Was the flood just the aftermath following the landfall of ‘Nilam’ or did a fresh low pressure system ravage coastal Andhra? The State administration has taken on the IMD for not warning it about the low pressure in the Bay of Bengal immediately following the storm but the met office says it did not have any information to share. The other point that has come up is that the department is better equipped to handle the Southwest monsoon and not the Northeast. But the damage has been done and at least eight districts of Andhra Pradesh — with Visakhapatnam and Srikakulam bearing the brunt — were left floating for days before the flood waters drained off. More than the warning or the rains, it is the lack of a proper drainage system along the east coast that led to such a tragedy, claiming over 20 lives and causing extensive damage to property and crops alike. And this damage can be prevented.

This is the sort of question the National Disaster Management Authority should start grappling with. NDMA teams visited the coastal States ahead of the monsoon and reviewed the preparedness of the administration in each of them. When the floods were in full flow, special teams of trained experts were there to rescue people and provide relief. The entire coast along the Bay, from Tamil Nadu to Odisha, and even parts of West Bengal, are vulnerable to storms and cyclones every year. The super cyclone that hit Odisha in 1999 and the 1977 floods that played havoc in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh ought to have taught enough lessons to the authorities. Unfortunately, neither the Centre nor the States seem to have responded in the way they should have. Instead of spending thousands of crores every year on compensation and flood relief, the Centre and the coastal States would do well to invest in permanent solutions, which include a proper drainage system for the flood waters to empty into the sea. All natural avenues for drainage have been blocked over the decades and must be reactivated. The Monsoon Mission that the Centre cleared about six months ago must be implemented at least before the 2013 season. The blame game and haggling over compensation does not help anybody. The NDMA has already laid down the basic framework that must now be implemented.

Comments by Praful Rao
Cyclone Nilam which was being tracked by STH, made landfall at Mahabalipuram (Tamil Nadu) at around 1630h IST on 31Oct2012. Thereafter, as per the IR imagery, the storm crossed inland, curved towards the north east, reformed and gained strength over the Bay of Bengal and was very active from the the 03Nov-05Nov2012 along the coast of Andhra Pradesh.
Placed below are 3 IR images of 04Nov2012, showing intense clouding off the coast of Andhra Pradesh.
It is surprising that the Govt of AP denies knowledge of the movement of the storm, when everything was so clearly visible to anyone armed with just a laptop and internet.

STH storm watch (29Oct2012) : The birth of a cyclone

Even as a "Sandy" a superstorm threatens the eastern coast of the USA, a low pressure which brewed up off the coast of Myanmar (which STH was tracking) on 26Oct2012 gradually intensified as it moved in a southwesterly track and now is a deep depression off the coast of Tamil Nadu. IMetD has issued a cyclone warning for Tamil Nadu.
Placed above is map showing the tracks of cyclones and depressions (2009-2011) in the Bay of Bengal (source is here)

Praful Rao