STH Stormwatch: Cyclone 'Biparjoy' in the Arabian sea and a 'well marked low' in the Bay of Bengal

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya.
savethehills@gmail.com
9475033744

STH stormwatch: A cyclone to threaten India's financial hub in the midst of a pandemic

JWTC forecast on the storm in the Arabian sea

Excerpt from IMD forecast

'The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Southeast & adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area concentrated into a Depression over Eastcentral & adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea. and lay centred about 400 km southwest of Panjim (Goa), 700 km south-southwest of Mumbai ( Maharashtra) and 930 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat).
It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression over Eastcentral & adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over Eastcentral Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move nearly northwards initially till 02nd June morning and recurve northnortheastwards and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts between Harihareswar (Raigarh, Maharashtra) and Daman during evening/night of 03 rd June,2020.'

 

Like AMPHAN hitting Kolkata on 20May2020, this storm too comes at a time when Mumbai has the highest rate of COVID19 infections in the country and is under lockdown.

UPDATE 1

It is still a Depression but will be called Cyclone 'Nisarga', when it intensifies into a cyclone. It is amazing how two consecutive megastorms (Cyclone 'Amphan' and this one) are targeting two megacities (Kolkata and Mumbai), this one with a population of 20 million and both in the midst of a pandemic.

UPDATE 2

The deep depression has now become a cyclone (NISARGA)  and while the track on the latest RSMC bulletin remains the same as earlier, information on the wind speeds and storm surge is as above.

UPDATE 3

First warning from JTWC has finally been issued.

Update 4

JTWC issued only 4 warnings for Cyclone Nisarga. The fourth and the last is below:

Rainfall records

Nira devghar,Pune dist - 147mm

Panshet,Pune dist - 137mm

Mahabaleswar - 214mm

Koyna Nagar - 156mm

Bhimashankar,Pune dist - 117mm

Khandala - 88mm

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

Closing Oct2019 with a bang : 3 Cyclones in the region

Oct 2019 for Kalimpong and Darjeeling districts has been dry. We are almost -60% in the monthly rainfall. Nevertheless, there has been plenty of weather activity elsewhere in the country with peninsular India and the western coast receiving plenty of rain.
As the curtains came down on Oct, we have 3 active storms in our region as shown above.

Update on 03Nov2019

Update on 05Nov2019
Caught in a pincer movement by two storms

Update on 10Nov2019

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

A tale of Two Cyclones : Cyclone 'Chapala' followed by Cyclone 'Megh' in the Arabian sea

Cyclones in the Arabian Sea are comparatively less frequent than those in the Bay of Bengal, and it is rare to see two cyclones in that area, riding bumper to bumper and heading towards the same region (ie the Yemen coast) all within a week!
Cyclone 'Megh' has now formed in the Arabian Sea, hard on the heels of 'Chapala' which dumped almost a decades' worth of rainfall in the deserts of war-torn Yemen a few days ago. The forecast track from JTWC show 'Megh' heading to the same region.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Reporting Cyclone 'Ashobaa', the first cyclone of 2015 in Northern Indian Ocean

Tracks in Arabian Sea are from here
Till date no low pressure/depression or cyclone has formed in the Bay of Bengal.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch: Cyclone Nilofar (update- 27Oct2014)

Websites for storm watch
India Meteorological Department
US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (NASA)
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (Univ of Wisconsin)
EUMETSAT
US Gov's Aviation Weather Center

Praful Rao,
Kalimponng,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch (26Oct2014) : Cyclone 'Nilofar' is born in the Arabian sea.

Excerpt from IMetD (All India Weather Bulletin)

'The deep depression over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian sea moved slightly northwestwards, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm, "NILOFAR" at 1130 hours IST and lay centered at 1430 hours IST of today, 26thOctober, 2014 near lat.14.1°N and long. 62.0°E, about 1270 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 910 km east south east of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards during next 48 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast during subsequent 72 hours.
It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24hours'
The forecast tracks shown above are from JTWC.

STH will continue monitoring this storm and will post salient updates from time to time, however we will not be posting detailed tracks and movements as we do for storms in the Bay of Bengal which impact the Darjeeling-Himalaya directly.

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Cyclone formation alert in the Arabian sea

IMetD is reporting a well-marked low pressure (see IR image on top of 6.30am today) in the south eastcentral Arabian sea, which is likely to intensify into a cyclone in the next 48h.
JTWC tracks are shown below.
It is amazing that a storm brewing so far away can spew clouding which is affecting us today - as I write it is turning cloudy in the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya (see cloud trail in the IR image on top)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch : Cyclone 'Nanauk' in the Arabian sea and the progress of SW monsoon

•  Slide 1 - Projected track of Cyclone Nanauk from JTWC. This the first Cyclone of the season.
•  Slide 2 - Position of Cyclone Nanauk on 12Jun2014 at 0900h IST.
• Progress of the SW monsoon (shown above) - indicating it has reached the Sub-Himalayan W Bengal and Sikkim areas.
  
  Praful Rao
  Kalimpong,
  District Darjeeling