STH stormwatch: A cyclone to threaten India's financial hub in the midst of a pandemic

JWTC forecast on the storm in the Arabian sea

Excerpt from IMD forecast

'The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Southeast & adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area concentrated into a Depression over Eastcentral & adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea. and lay centred about 400 km southwest of Panjim (Goa), 700 km south-southwest of Mumbai ( Maharashtra) and 930 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat).
It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression over Eastcentral & adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over Eastcentral Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move nearly northwards initially till 02nd June morning and recurve northnortheastwards and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts between Harihareswar (Raigarh, Maharashtra) and Daman during evening/night of 03 rd June,2020.'

 

Like AMPHAN hitting Kolkata on 20May2020, this storm too comes at a time when Mumbai has the highest rate of COVID19 infections in the country and is under lockdown.

UPDATE 1

It is still a Depression but will be called Cyclone 'Nisarga', when it intensifies into a cyclone. It is amazing how two consecutive megastorms (Cyclone 'Amphan' and this one) are targeting two megacities (Kolkata and Mumbai), this one with a population of 20 million and both in the midst of a pandemic.

UPDATE 2

The deep depression has now become a cyclone (NISARGA)  and while the track on the latest RSMC bulletin remains the same as earlier, information on the wind speeds and storm surge is as above.

UPDATE 3

First warning from JTWC has finally been issued.

Update 4

JTWC issued only 4 warnings for Cyclone Nisarga. The fourth and the last is below:

Rainfall records

Nira devghar,Pune dist - 147mm

Panshet,Pune dist - 137mm

Mahabaleswar - 214mm

Koyna Nagar - 156mm

Bhimashankar,Pune dist - 117mm

Khandala - 88mm

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

First CYLONE of 2020 in the Bay of Bengal?

As per IMD (NWP), we might be heading for our second brush with a cyclone in the month of MAY after a gap of 11 years. I still have vivid memories of CYLCONE AILA which hit us in May2009 and left scars which have not healed till date.
Placed below is the forecast of the storm from the NWP:

We r watching the developments closely and have already alerted concerned departments. CYCLONE AILA was bad but this time it's worse, because over and above the cyclone we have another unwelcome visitor - COVID19 is doing the rounds among us.
Do remember that these are NWP charts and by 16May2020 we are likely to get much more detailed forecast tracks from IMD as well as other websites such as JTWC
Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya

Update 1

From Weather.com: Cyclone in Bay of Bengal (May2020)

Update 2 (1200h/16May2020)

Above track has now been formally announced by IMD in a RSMC bulletin

Update 3
Warning No 1 from the JTWC

Update 4

Cyclone 'Amphan' was born yesterday as the depression strengthened and it has since become a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) which is supposed to make landfall near DIGHA on 20May2020 as a VSCS. STH has been conducting awareness workshops on the cyclone both on social networks as well as on local TV.

PS: That's my dog, Kaali in the photo. She follows me like a shadow :)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch : Cyclone 'Maarutha' is born (16Apr2017) and its early demise (Update of 17Apr2017)

The storm in the Bay of Bengal intensified into a full blown cyclone and was christened 'MAARUTHA' today. This is the first named storm of the 2017 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone season.

Update of 17Apr2017 (Extracts from JTWC bulletin)
' SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR TOUNGUP AND IS RAPIDLY DECAYING.'
JTWC has also issued its final warning on the cyclone considering it no longer significant.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch : Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal (01Nov2016) and update (04Nov2016)

The system has intensified into a depression and is expected eventually become a cyclone.

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch (24Oct2016) : Storm in bay intensifies into a DEEP depression

Update 1 (25Oct2016) :- Cyclone 'Kyant is born

This is the second cyclone in the Bay in 2016 after Cyclone 'Roanu'

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch (Update) : Storm tracks from JTWC and UK Met Office

 

Update on 18May2015 (Midday)
IMD has upgraded its category of the storm from 'Depression' to 'Deep Depression'

Link to JTWC image
Link to UK Met office storm tracker
Link to IMD Weather Warning

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling 

STH Stormwatch (2016) :- First Low Pressure Area (LOPAR) of the year forms in the Bay (and updates)

Excerpt of IMD Weather Inference of 14May2016 (Night)

"A low pressure area has formed over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal. It is likely to become well marked low pressure area and further concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours."

Websites and Links for watching/tracking severe weather  
1. Satellite images from IMD : IR and other images are available from IMD including animations. The images are updated every 30mins.

2. Cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean :- see here

3. JTWC for tracks and images :- see here

4. Updated IR Imagery for aviation :- click on ICAO Area 'E' 
5. Worldwide Lightning location network :- Indicates lightning ie severe weather locations
6. STH stormwatch ie this blog.

Update 1 (15May2016- evening)
The above system has concentrated into a well marked LOPAR. It is likely to move northwestwards, become a deep depression and cross the Tamil Nadu coast between around 17May2016 (morning) - source

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Withdrawal of SW Monsoons from this region : 15Oct2015

Though we had a number of low pressure systems and depressions developing in the Bay of Bengal (see blog for details) in 2015, we have had only ONE cyclone (Cyclone Komen) forming in the Bay this year where we normally have around 4-5.
There is much literature available on the internet on the trend in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances in the Bay of Bengal, this is just one such article.


Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Useful websites for Earthquake data and Weather monitoring

1. QUAKE DATA
a. IMD gives details on latest quake and also an inventory of quakes in current and previous month here
b. USGS has a huge amount of data on quakes here and you can get details on the latest quake along with a map here
I used these sites extensively during the recent Nepal Earthquakes and I found the quake reports being posted within minutes of the occurrence.
c. You can try this ArcGIS site for some maps and info (Nepal Quakes)
2. WEATHER INFORMATION
a. IMD has recently updated its website and put in a wealth of information :-
i. It has a ticker where you can register for cyclone alerts by SMS here. I tried registering myself but it did NOT quite work (hope it is a glitch which they will iron out soon).
ii. From this year onwards, IMD has a special weather forecast for the mountainous regions of the Western Himalayas here. While this is wonderful, I wonder when they will have something similar for the Eastern Himalayas as well.
iii. You can get your actual rainfall data etc from the Automatic Weather Stations and Automatic Rainfall Gauges almost on a real time basis here. A word of caution - many stations are not working or give wrong data!
iv. The satellite imagery page has undergone major changes with tons of data which are meant and can be understood only by a meteorologist. However, this is my absolute favorite where you can see cloud movements taking place almost as it is happening! The 'refresh' button updates the timing of the imagery. Please remember these are IR images.
b. It is worthwhile checking the websites of meteorological departments of our neighbours Pakistan and Bangladesh which also have satellite images, as well a host of other data.
c. The US Navy's JTWC is perhaps the best website for tracks of any cyclone/hurricane or typhoons which is also linked to Google Earth.
d. Last but not least you can look up our blog, where you will find the monthly rainfall data for the last four years of many stations in the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya. Also as a part of the 'STH stormwatch' series we publish early/advance warning, tracks and other data on adverse weather phenomenon for this region as soon as we detect it on websites  - which implies that our service is totally internet based and will not function if the network malfunctions.
__________________________________________
Comment by Praful Rao
If you know of other websites (and I am sure there must be a myriad other sites) which provide reliable early warning/ data/ information on hazards esp for this region which can be used to save lives, please share the same with us.
Contact us at :savethehills@gmail.com.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Cyclone formation alert in the Arabian sea

IMetD is reporting a well-marked low pressure (see IR image on top of 6.30am today) in the south eastcentral Arabian sea, which is likely to intensify into a cyclone in the next 48h.
JTWC tracks are shown below.
It is amazing that a storm brewing so far away can spew clouding which is affecting us today - as I write it is turning cloudy in the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya (see cloud trail in the IR image on top)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Update on depression in Bay of Bengal

• IMetD has upgraded the well-marked low pressure into a depression which would further intensify into a deep-depression within 24h and eventually become a cyclone.
• The JTWC predicted tracks are shown on top.
• The latest IR photo is shown above.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch: Low Pressure forms in the north Bay of Bengal

An excerpt from IMD All India Weather Bulletin (evening)
" The low pressure area over north Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of Bangladesh & Gangetic West Bengal persists.
Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 km above mean sea level tilting southwestwards with height also persists"
This is the second low pressure area of 2014 in the Bay, the first one being here

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (04Jan2014) : Well marked low pressure over southwest Bay of Bengal.

IMetD - All India Weather Bulletin (Night)

• The well marked low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and neighborhood persists with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level.
• The well marked low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood would move westwards during next 48 hours and affect Tamilnadu and Kerala. 

Rohan Rao

Kalimpong,

Dist-Darjeeling,

Email : rohan.rao1313@gmail.com

STH stormwatch 06Dec2013 :Depression in Bay Bengal.

IMetD - All India Weather Bulletin (Night)

• The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained  practically stationery and lay centred near latitude 10.0° N and longitude 84.0° E, about 530 km southeast of Chennai.
• The  depression  over southwest Bay of Bengal would concentrate into a  deep depression  during next 24 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would move nearly northwards slowly during next 48 hours and then recurve north northeastwards. 

Rohan Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist-Darjeeling 

Email- rohan.rao1313@gmail.com                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

STH Storm watch : The first depression in the Bay of Bengal in 2013 (10-11May2013)

Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of 10^th May 2013 near latitude 05.50 N and longitude 92.00E, about 400 km south-southwest of Car Nicobar, 1200 km east-southeast of Trincomalee, 1550km southeast of Chennai and 1850 km south of Chittagong.
The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It would move initially northwestwards during next 48hours and recurve thereafter northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

Excerpt from IMetD

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong

STH StormWatch (18Nov2012 update) : The Depression becomes a Cyclone

The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded the storm last evening and is now named as Tropical Cyclone 03 (see top).
IMD cyclone page has posted a forecast track image and shows the storm veering away from its earlier NW track to a South westerly path.

Praful Rao