ALL ABOUT CYCLONES: How cyclone track forecasts can change dramatically and how climate change maybe impacting them.

 We have been tracking the storm in the Bay of Bengal for several days now (as we normally do) and have been posting updates in our WhatsApp Group 'Hazard Alerts'.
On 26Nov2024, the forecast from IMD clearly said that the storm would intensify into a CYCLONE

This was changed and on 28Nov and the storm was expected to remain a 'DEEP DEPRESSION' and make landfall on 30Nov2024 as a 'WELL MARKED LOW' (see below)

The forecast was revised the next day and the track showed the storm intensifying into CYCLONE 'FENGAL'on 29Nov2024.
The latest forecast track from IMD of 'FENGAL' together with WARNING no '3' from JTWC is reproduced below.

The tracks from IMD and JTWC seem to coincide.
I am also posting an article from today's Statesman on how climate change maybe impacting cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

Praful Rao
SaveTheHills
savethehills@gmail.com
9475033744

STH Storm Watch: Tropical Cyclone 04B in the north Bay of Bengal (01Aug2023)

 Whereas JTWC has issued Warning No 2 for 'Tropical Cyclone 04B (with tracks)' in the north Bay of Bengal, IMD still categorizes the storm as a 'deep depression' and the track is shown below:

In the morning, only an 'Orange' warning for heavy rain had been issued for S Bengal which has been upgraded at around 10.30hrs to RED warning for some areas of S Bengal and Odisha.

Updated track of the storm at 2pm/01Aug2023

Hope the storm intensity and rainfall remains within manageable limits, because the projected track passes over densely populated areas of S Bengal.

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya
savethehills@gmail.com
9475033744

Cyclone 'FANI' - the first cyclone of 2019 to hit Indian Coast (track from JTWC -27Apr2019)

TRACK OF CYCLONE 'FANI' FROM FROM JTWC
STH posts alerts/tracks of relevant storms and extreme weather which will affect the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalayas directly on the 'HAZARD ALERT (HA)' What's APP group so as to provide EW to communities and people who would be impacted.
HA was formed by STH two monsoons ago and today with 183 members many of whom are from the local media, NGOs and govt officials, we hope the EW message in the age of social media can reach a large number of people in time so that lives will be saved.
We will, however ALSO post info and pertinent data regarding significant storms so as to maintain a record of extreme events affecting this region.

Update as on 03May2019

Last track and warning (No 27) from JTWC- 04MAy2019

Bullet points on Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) 'FANI':

• First Cyclone in Bay of Bengal in 2019. Time span from 27Apr2019 till 04May2019.
• Was the strongest cyclone in the Bay in 20yrs. One million evacuated in Odisha.
• Airports were shut down and trains cancelled and both PM Modi and CM of Bengal monitored FANI closely from control rooms.
• Became a super-typhoon for a short duration with wind speeds touching 300kmph and made landfall near Puri in the early morning of 03May with windspeeds of 200kmph.
  Extensive damage in Odisha
• However, minimal damage in W Bengal which was also along the track of FANI.
• It quickly weakened after landfall and rainfall in Kolkata was much less than expected.
• Fatalities remained minimal and was less than 10
• The effect of FANI in Darjeeling-Sikkim was mild with light rain (Kalimpong -25mm) and hardly any change in wind speeds.
• The storm weakened and moved towards the North Eastern states where wind velocities again reached 100kmph. Considerable damage was reported in Meghalaya
• By 05May, the storm had completely dissipated.

 



Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch : Cyclone 'Maarutha' is born (16Apr2017) and its early demise (Update of 17Apr2017)

The storm in the Bay of Bengal intensified into a full blown cyclone and was christened 'MAARUTHA' today. This is the first named storm of the 2017 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone season.

Update of 17Apr2017 (Extracts from JTWC bulletin)
' SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR TOUNGUP AND IS RAPIDLY DECAYING.'
JTWC has also issued its final warning on the cyclone considering it no longer significant.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch : Updated forecast tracks/position of Cyclone 'Roanu' from 3 sources

Source
UK Met office
JTWC
IMD

Updated position on 21May2016

Updated position of Cyclone Roanu at 1500h with track predictions from Bangladesh Met Office

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

A tale of Two Cyclones : Cyclone 'Chapala' followed by Cyclone 'Megh' in the Arabian sea

Cyclones in the Arabian Sea are comparatively less frequent than those in the Bay of Bengal, and it is rare to see two cyclones in that area, riding bumper to bumper and heading towards the same region (ie the Yemen coast) all within a week!
Cyclone 'Megh' has now formed in the Arabian Sea, hard on the heels of 'Chapala' which dumped almost a decades' worth of rainfall in the deserts of war-torn Yemen a few days ago. The forecast track from JTWC show 'Megh' heading to the same region.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Cyclone formation alert in the Arabian sea

IMetD is reporting a well-marked low pressure (see IR image on top of 6.30am today) in the south eastcentral Arabian sea, which is likely to intensify into a cyclone in the next 48h.
JTWC tracks are shown below.
It is amazing that a storm brewing so far away can spew clouding which is affecting us today - as I write it is turning cloudy in the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya (see cloud trail in the IR image on top)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (22May2014 update) : JTWC changes predicted track

For further details go here
Whereas on 21May2014, the depression was seen moving east towards MyanMar, on 22May2014, the projected track shows the storm moving northwest towards Bangladesh and could well affect W. Bengal as well.
This forecast seems in keeping with the meteorological analysis by IMetD (22May2014) in its ALL INDIA WEATHER BULLETIN (Night), which states :-
'The depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hours IST of today, near lat.17.5°N and long. 92.0E, about 650 km north-northwest of Port Blair. It would move north-northwestwards during next 48 hours'

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling