The deluge of Jun2022 (affecting Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya (India), Bangladesh (Sylhet, Sumamganj) and Bhutan.

The north east of India and Bangladesh are no stranger to flooding - which is an annual event. This year the flooding started in May2022 but peaked in mid June2022 with rainfall records of more than a century being broken.

Meteorological conditions from 1Jun22 to 20Jun22

Meteorological conditions which led to the extraordinary rainfall in east India and Bangladesh were as follows:
a) An east west trough of low pressure existed for almost 3 weeks from western India thru Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal to Assam.
b) Westerly winds prevailed in much of mainland India as a result, both west and central India are, at the time of writing deficient in rain.
c) There was a persisting lack of weather activity in the Bay of Bengal with no lows or depressions forming for over a month.
d) Strong southerly wind flows to northeast India from the Bay pumped in extraordinary amounts of moisture into the region (see below).

Satellite Images of Clouding

Affected areas (India)

Indian states Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim, and Tripura were severely affected by the excessive rainfall. The deluge started in May itself, when Assam got 62% above normal pre-monsoon rains (Zaman, 2022).
Some residents of Hojai district (Assam) alluded to faulty dam operations also being one of the causes of the deluge, “Even if there was a flood earlier, it used to take two to three days for the whole village to be submerged. This time, the entire village was submerged within 10-12 hours.” (Zaman, 2022)

Affected areas (Bangladesh)
Bordering the country of Assam, Bangladesh also faced the same wrath. It has been observed that in 122 years such flooding in the Sylhet region in Northern Bangladesh has not been observed. One of the fundamental reasons for the worsened condition of Bangladesh was the cascading water coming from the hills of Meghalaya. Assam and Meghalaya have received an excess of 125% rainfall as on 16Jun22.

'Heavy monsoon rains and water from upstream in India's northeast have inundated large parts of the Sylhet division, leaving millions of people marooned and triggering a humanitarian crisis. The flash floods swept away homes and inundated farmlands, forcing families to seek shelter on higher ground and temporary flood shelters, while power cut is making life miserable. Experts considered the flood worse than the ones they had experienced in 1998 and 2004. The crisis struck at a time when the people of the division were recovering from unexpected recent floods that hit in late May. An estimated 7.2 million people are affected
by this sudden flash flood and water congestion in nine northeastern districts of Sylhet, Sunamganj, Moulivazar, Habiganj, Kishorganj, and Netrakona, Brahman Baria, Mymensing and Sherpur. Among the nine districts, five heavily impacted are Sylhet, Sunamganj, Moulivazar, Habiganj and Netrakona. As many as 472,856 people have been taken to around 1,605 shelter centres in a combined effort of the Army, Navy,
Fire Service, and the local authorities, according to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR). Many households are isolated due to floods, while some have taken shelter in open areas. The safety and security of women and girls in those households are at high risk'- (Source: UN, Bangladesh)

Affected areas (Bhutan)
Information not available

Rainfall Activity from 15Jun2022 - 18Jun2022

Comparison between the monthly mean average for June with the observed rainfall activity has been shown below. The monthly mean average is calculated by using daily rainfall data from 1989 to 2018 and analyzed by IMD, Pune.

•  In  4 days, regions in Assam and Meghalaya received their entire month's rainfall.
• Sikkim observed the same in 6 days.

Observed Rainfall statistics:

 

Impact of the Deluge (India)
The extreme rainfall resulted in floods and landslides  which severely impacted large swathes of the North East Region. Critical communication networks in terms of the Indian railways and National Highways (NH) were disrupted and Tripura faces acute shortage of essential commodities as parts of NH 6 (connecting Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur to the rest of the country) under Meghalaya's Lumshnong area have been affected by landslides.

Assam has reported landslides in Dima- Hasao, Goalpara, Morigaon, Kamrup and Kamrup(M) in the last few days. (Humanitarian Aid organization, 2022).

Meghalaya also reported landslides from three districts – East Khasi Hill (Mawsynram) ,South West Khasi Hills ,South Garo Hills and Llumshnong in Jaintia hills.

Some of the roads impacted in Sikkim due to many large and small-scale landslides are:

● 20th mile, NH10 between Singtam and Rangpo
● 17th mile Gangtok
● Singtam-Temi Tarku stretch
● Rangpo Rorathang stretch
● Jorethang-Namchi road

Latest report by the New York Times reports at least 116 fatalities due to flooding, lightning strikes and landslides in India and Bangladesh (NY Times, 2022). The Humanitarian Aid International reported that as of 22Jun22 there were 28 districts, 2,930 villages with over 19 lakh people affected and 54 fatalities in Assam.

Given below are statistics from the Assam State Disaster Management Authority from their Daily Flood Reports, from 16Jun22 - 19Jun22.

Whereas we found much information and well updated data in the Assam State Disaster Management website, there was virtually no information on the recent floods and landslides in the Meghalaya State Disaster Management website

Impact of the Deluge (Bangladesh)

The UN report is placed here

Impact of the Deluge (Bhutan)
Information not available

Images/Media reports

Ankit Mankar (Azim Premji University, Bangalore)
Shreya Gurung (SaveTheHills)
Praful Rao (SaveTheHills)

The new normal : Siliguri gets one third its monthly rain in 4 hours.

 

Monthly rainfall for June of Jalpaiguri, an adjacent town is 773mm. As such it is scary that one third the monthly rainfall for Siliguri town, came down within 4hours.

 

The good news is that there were no casualties.

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

Rainfall data of May2022 of some towns in the Darjeeling -Sikim Himalaya

As with April 2022, Darjeeling and Kalimpong districts were deficient in rainfall (see below)

Again Jalpaiguri and Cooch Behar districts had excess rain and so too East and North Sikkim districts (see below).This has been the trend for sometime and is continuing as I write today.

STH continued work in 'Hazard Alerts' our What's App group where we post satellite cloud imagery and information on environmental issues of the Himalayas.

And this included information and tracks of Cyclone 'ASANI' the first cyclone of 2022 in the Bay of Bengal.

Praful Rao with Shreya Gurung
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

The 30May2022 storm over Delhi which gave No Warning

Yesterday (30May2022) at around 4pm a fierce storm hit Delhi and parts of the NCR causing two fatalities and quite a bit of damage.

As per news reports the storm gave no warning (see Times of India excerpt below)

Also placed below are satellite IR images from IMD from 2.15pm which clearly shows clouding due west of Delhi intensifying and moving east until it envelopes the entire NCR and moves further east

A senior meteorologist has this explanation
'Yesterday's(30May2022) Thunderstorm was expected for Delhi under the influence of induced circulation and trough. WD was moving at higher latitude.
It was difficult to pinpoint the onset timing. However morning forecast was for duration 1700 to 2000h.
At 1442 IST doppler radar shown formation of convective cells 70-80Km south of Delhi. After 10 minutes a cell formed west of Delhi at 70Km distance. The expected speed of movement was 70Km/hr. So the strike time for Palam is around 1600h.
Thus it gave very short notice than we would have loved.
Satellite images are more than half an hour delayed image hardly can be used for pinpointed forecast. Doppler radar delay time is about 15 min'

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

Rainfall data of April2022 of some towns of Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

 

What was very evident in the rainfall of April 2022 was that Darjeeling and Kalimpong districts were deficient in rainfall as were South and West districts of Sikkim.
In North Bengal, areas which received a large surplus of rainfall were Jalpaiguri and Cooch Behar districts whereas the hilly areas of Sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) remained dry and similarly East Sikkim and North Sikkim went surplus.

Praful Rao with Shreya Gurung
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling -Sikkim Himalaya

STH Activities: Participating in Darjeeling Himalaya Initiative's 'Call of the Mountains' event :30May2022

SaveTheHills has long been a member of the Integrated Mountain Initiative (IMI) and is a member of the state chapter of IMI which is the Darjeeling Himalaya Initiative (DHI). We have participated in a number of events over the years related to (mainly) environmental issues of the Himalayas and yesterday we took part in the 'Call of the Mountains' (CoMs)event at Little Tibet hotel in Darjeeling.
Our theme for CoMs anchored around food and was ‘Changing food and food systems of the Darjeeling Himalayas’ and I can’t tell you how relevant this topic is.
Every time I sit down for a meal with my 6 yr.old granddaughter, I am painfully reminded how the frontal assault by multinational food companies have altered our food habits in the mountains. She steadfastly refuses to eat any wholesome home food and is almost addicted to packaged foods and cereals. Not only are these foods poor substitutes for freshly cooked home food, they also generate nightmarish quantities of plastic waste.
CoMs was attended by around 35-40 people including some from the Darjeeling Municipality, SHGs, Homestay organizers, and NGOs

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling Sikkim Himalaya

It's scary when cyclone forecast tracks go awry (Cyclone ASANI -11May2022)

Having tracked cyclones and storms on the internet for decades now, I almost believe forecast tracks these days are infallible - track predictions are so accurate today that it seems that scientists can guide the storm to where ever they want.
So it was strange that in 2022 some track predictions went awry. On 03Mar and 22Mar2022 two depressions which were supposed to intensify into cyclones in the Bay of Bengal withered away and never became cyclones.
Now Cyclone ASANI which was supposed to head to towards the north Bay of Bengal has steadfastly remained anchored to south east of VIZAG (as on time and date of writing). JTWC has changed its forecast track and seems more or less correct now. IMD forecasts still predict movement towards the northeast - which may eventually be correct but not in the time span predicted.
So my faith in the total infallibility of storm track predictions is suddenly shaken.

Update
So there was a goof up

Update: ASANI - A cyclone with a mind of its own

Praful Rao

Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch : First REAL CYCLONE in the Bay 'ASANI' is born

 As earlier said, STH uses WhatsApp, a very popular and versatile social media platform to disseminate information and warnings on hazards in this area as such our activity on this blog is minimal and restricted to disbursing rainfall records, information on major landslide activity and keeping a record of STH activities.
As regards storms in the Bay of Bengal, two earlier depressions which we made note of, fizzled out and never became full blown cyclones. In fact the one which dissipated over Myanmar on 23Mar2022 was supposed to have become Cyclone ASANI.
We are tracking and updating members of STH's HAZARD ALERT WhatsApp group continuously on the progress of the cyclone.

Update on the Cyclone tracks

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya 

Rainfall data of Mar 2022 of some towns in the Darjeeling- Sikkim Himalaya

 As has been the noticeable trend, rainfall was severely deficient in Darjeeling and Kalimpong districts whereas all of Sikkim had much better rain in Mar2022

Forecasts for two depressions maturing into cyclonic storms in the Bay in Mar2022 proved erroneous and the storms remained as depressions.

With deficient rain our region remained very dry resulting in a number of forest and other fires.

Praful Rao and Ms Shreya Gurung of STH
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya