Hope amidst Hopelessness and an Expert's view

In a bid to throw light on the probable cause, duration and impact of the 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake, STH has been contacting several renowned experts in seismology and disaster management. Thus the grim foreboding for the Darjeeling-Sikkim region from Prof. Malay Mukul of IIT, Mumbai (Dept. of earth sciences) is placed here.

A clarification/assessment of the frequent aftershocks following the 7.9 R earthquake by Prof. Dave Petley (Pro-VCO), University of East Anglia, UK, is placed here.

Prof. Rajendra Bhandari is acknowledged as one of the leading experts in the world on landslides. An excerpt of his letter to STH regarding the Nepal earthquake is published below:-

"The Nepal earthquake should not have surprised us because a number of studies expected a repeat of 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake. Similarly, India should not be surprised if the 1897 Shillong earthquake repeats anytime. Unfortunate we begin to speak of earthquakes and landslides only after the events and do nothing between the events. Then we fool ourselves by throwing up the argument that earthquakes are to be accepted because we cannot predict them. Why can we not fix all the major landslides in Shillong, Darjeeling and other parts of NE by spending 1000 crores before the Shillong earthquake arrives? 

Perhaps this 1000 crore is reserved for the families of those who would die in the quake. Why do we not retrofit all our hospitals so that victims will not have to wait for the Pakistani plane to arrive! Why do we not train communities, make earthquake-proof shelters and improve communication systems. We need a strong will to do something before our own day of departure comes. 

The aftershocks post Gujarat earthquake were also as alarming. My gut feeling is that the major event for the time being is over even though some aftershocks may keep repeating. The magnitude of aftershocks would also diminish within a few days. Had this earthquake been of magnitude 5.5-6 to begin with, perhaps those would have been fore shocks, appearing as the advance team of the main event to follow."

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Photo credits: CNN

Images from Ground Zero and a stark warning from another scientist : A letter from Prof Malay Mukul (IIT, Mumbai)

Prof Malay Mukul, of  the Dept of Earth Sciences, IIT Mumbai is from Kalimpong and has done extensive studies on the seismology of the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya. 

He has contributed numerous articles to this blog, besides taking part in several seminars we had  organized. I had written to him after asking his inputs after the recent Nepal quake and I reproduce his reply in toto, in the hope that we living in this beautiful, yet fragile mountains may treat our home with more respect :-

First of all the earthquake was pretty much expected. (see here)

It was an earthquake that originated on the Main Himalayan Fault which is the basal thrust fault of the Himalaya and is also known as the Himalayan Decollement. Himalaya hosts many earthquakes; but the ones that involve the decollement are the great earthquakes whose magnitude is >8.0. These are the ones that all of us dread. The April 25, 7.9 Nepal Earthquake was a decollement earthquake and was bang in the middle of the high risk zone (Please see the two pictures given in the thread above, originally prepared by Roger Bilham, the longer the bar the higher is the seismic hazard in the region). The previous earthquake in the region was in 1934 and was a 8.1 earthquake which killed 10000 people. The expected projection for a repeat of that earthquake today was 49000. So who knows what will be the eventual death toll in this one.

What is also important and is evident from the two figures in the thread above is that there are other areas in the Himalayas that are waiting to be hit. Darjeeling-Sikkim is one of them. The 2011 earthquake was a strike slip one which is not the type we see in Nepal. We actually still await a Nepal kind of earthquake. With the concrete jungle that has mushroomed in our part of the Himalaya, Gangtok is likely to be our Kathmandu!

Aftershocks will continue for sometime. We have already had 45. There usually are a few aftershocks that are about 1 magnitude less that the main shock. We have already had a 6.7 and a 6.6 but most of the activity has been between 4-5. Aftershocks greater than 6.9 are not expected for this earthquake.

A final note: Although we can predict earthquakes in space, we are hopelessly off in earthquake prediction in time. So please do not believe any rumours that give you time predictions on earthquakes.

If you have questions, please let me know.

Best regards, Malay

Photo credits: CNN.


Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling