Depression turns into Cyclone (RASHMI)

Cyclone brings rain rage

OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

Calcutta, Oct. 26: A cyclone called Rashmi is inching towards coastal Bengal, carrying with it the threat of heavy rain in Calcutta though the city does not fall in the storm’s path projected till late this evening. The Met office said a deep depression over west-central Bay of Bengal, which caused Saturday’s rain, had intensified into a cyclone and was headed for the Bengal-Bangladesh coast near Sagar Island. Cyclone Rashmi, rated in the low-intensity Category 1 till this evening, is expected to make landfall between 8 and 9.30am on Monday. “The cyclone now lies about 350km south of Calcutta and is expected to hit the Bengal-Bangladesh coast on Monday morning. The cyclone has been named Rashmi,” said G.C. Debnath, the director of the weather section at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Alipore. Met officials said gusty winds at speeds between 60 and 80kmph were expected along the Bengal coast, along “with heavy to very heavy rain” on Monday. Officials also warned of heavy rain in Calcutta. The officials said tonight that the cyclone was proceeding in a north north-eastern direction and was expected to move into Bangladesh soon after hitting land. “Calcutta is not in the path of the cyclone. But it will cause rains in the city. We are keeping a close watch on the movement of the cyclone,” an official said. But he added that since 350 kilometres lay between the cyclone and land, a shift in course could not be ruled out. The district magistrates of East Midnapore, South 24-Parganas, North 24-Parganas and West Midnapore have been asked to take precautionary measures, finance minister Asim Dasgupta said. ________________________ Extract from India Meteorological Website (http://www.imdkolkata.gov.in) CYCLONE WARNING BULLETIN NO. 2 Date and Time of Issue : 27TH October 2008 at 0100 hours IST. Information on Cyclone: The Cyclonic Storm “Rashmi” over Northwest Bay of Bengal moved rapidly in a North – Northeasterly Direction and lay centered at 2030 hrs IST of 26th october, 2008 near latitude 20.5 deg. North , longitude 88.5 deg. East and about 230 km south of Kolkata. Forecast : FURTHER INTENSIFICATION : Will intensify further. DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT : Will move in a North-Northeasterly direction. EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA : Cross West Bengal – Bangladesh Coast around 89.0 Deg East EXPECTED TIME OF LANDFALL : by tomorrow, Monday, 27th October Morning. ________________________ HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING Heavy to very heavy rain likely to occur at isolated places in Coastal Orissa and coastal districts of West Bengal during next 12 hours. Heavy rain also likely to occur at isolated places over Tripura, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 36 hrs. Heavy rain also likely to occur at isolated places over Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours. ____________________________________________________ Comment by praful rao Judging by the predicted track, hopefully RASHMI will also miss us as did cyclones SIDR (Oct2007) and NARGIS (May2008) in the past. What never ceases to worry me is, what sort of defense mechanism do we have in the hills (except of course fervent prayer) against any of these monsters moving in our direction??

A worrisome development today (26Oct2008)

Placed below is the latest satellite photo from the India Meteorological Dept website. It shows unseasonal rain creeping up our way in the form of a depression in the Bay of Bengal.
It is just this type of weather phenomenon that we should watch out and be prepared for.

Severe Weather Warnings
Date: OCTOBER 26, 2008

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER COASTAL AREAS OF WEST BENGAL DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTH EASTERN STATES AND SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL AND SIKKIM DURING NEXT 48 HOURS AND OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, KERALA ,TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHERRY AND NORTH COASTAL ORISSA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 55-65 KMPH GUSTING TO 75 KMPH ARE LIKELY ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL AND ORISSA COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH ALONG AND OFF THESE COASTS. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.

(http://imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm)

(Italics are mine)

praful rao

The RTI application and follow up

The RTI Act2005, is one of the most progressive pieces of legislation in our democracy. Despite the fact that the efficacy of the act has to an extent been watered down, I am glad to tell you that it is still is a weapon worth using.
I had asked for some information from the district administration, regarding Landslide Hazards in Darjeeling district on 19Aug2008. Having received no reply by the due date, I queried the State Commission recently by email. Placed below is my RTI application and the reply


praful rao

Wither SaveTheHills (STH)??

I haven't updated this blog for sometime now and the reasons are two fold:-

• 2008 was an extremely lucky year as far as landslides . With less than average rainfall in Jul/Aug and highly deficient rainfall in Sep2008 we escaped with just a few slides in the month of Jun2008.
  Quite naturally (and very happily too!) there were no washed away bridges to photograph or grim stories to recall. Good for us and I hope we are as lucky in the years ahead too!!
  
  
• Hidden behind the seemingly dormant and inactive period, there has been a virtual storm in STH - with a flurry of behind the scene activities taking place:-
  a) So on 21Sep2008, we had a meeting at the local community hall and STH today is an NGO. We are in the process of registering the body as a society. I will in the course of time post brief member profiles of all the STH executive members.
  b) Besides working towards raising awareness about landslides in the Darjeeling and Sikkim hills, STH took on a different role on 18Oct2008.
  Hearing the plea of a young hardworking but under-privileged student, Subash Chhetri, from Sinji a remote village in Kalimpong subdivision, who is currently doing his B. Tech (agriculture) in Uttar Banga Krishi Vishwa Vidylaya, Cooch Behar, STH raised money from donors and gifted the student with a laptop. The seven donors included individuals and institutions from Sikkim and Kalimpong.

  We also used the occasion to remind people that it was the 40 anniversary of the Oct 1968 disaster in these hills when thousands died in landslides. To commemorate this, STH is organizing a national level workshop on Landslide Hazards in Darjeeling on 21 Nov 2008. Prof Leszek Starkel a world renowned geographer who has been studying landslides in this area for the past 40 years will be the Chief Guest as well as main speaker. Other resource persons will be drawn from North Bengal University, Border Roads Task Force and STH. Representatives from Sikkim will also attend. Officials from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and State Disaster Management Authority are also expected to attend.

With the Landslide Hazard Workshop coming up on 21Nov2008 at Southfield (formerly Loreto) College, we will be busy and the posts may slow down for some time; HOWEVER I would like to reassure everyone that STH is very much alive and kicking.
I leave you with a photograph from the small ceremony where we gave away the laptop.
(That's STH Exec member, Ms Gayatri Kharel, a structural engineer presenting the laptop to Subash Chhetri, B Tech student)


praful rao

Nature's mood swings: Sept rainfall data analysis

Actual rainfall Sep2007 : 771mm
Actual rainfall Sep2008 : 172mm
Average rainfall Sept : 368mm (http://wbagrimarketingboard.gov.in/Area/Rain.html)

• Placed above please find the rainfall data of Darjeeling for the month of Sep2007/08.
  September is a month when the monsoons begin their withdrawal from the country as such the average rainfall for Sep is normally less than the 600mm odd which is the approx average for the other monsoon months. Yet, as is evident above the variation in the rainfall seems almost impossible to believe.
  Is this caused by global warming?? I don't know but here are some astonishing facts which emerge from the above table:-
  
  a) In Sep2007 we did have exceptionally heavy rainfall ie more than double the monthly average.
  b) In 3 days (05Sep-07Sep2007) it rained more than the monthly average.
  c) In Sep 2008 we had deficient rainfall ie less than half the monthly average.
  d) On a single day (06Sep2007) last year, it rained more (187mm) than it did the entire month this year (172mm)

Little wonder then that all the major landslides in the district and Sikkim occurred between 05-7Sep2007 and it was providence alone that stopped the rain thereafter.

This year we have been exceptionally lucky as far as landslides go.. but let us not depend on the luck factor alone!!

________________________________________________________
Comment by praful rao
My thanks to Compuset Darjeeling for the rainfall data.

A letter to the NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority)

Briefly for those interested, the National Disaster Management Authority (link here) is chaired by the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, the Vice-Chairman is Gen NC Vij (retd) and the person dealing with landslides and the states of W. Bengal and Sikkim is Dr Mohan Kanda ,IAS (retd).
This is my email to Dr Kanda today :-

________________________________________________


To,
Dr Mohan Kanda,
Member,
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA),
Centaur Hotel,
Near IGI Airport,
New Delhi 110037

Initiation of landslide preventive measures in the Darjeeling Himalayas during the dry season from Oct08 to Jun2009

Dear Sir,

By way of a brief introduction, I am the convener of SaveTheHills (STH), which is a group of people working towards raising awareness about landslides in Darjeeling district. We formed STH, after a near disaster situation last Sep when torrential rains triggered off massive landslides in the Darjeeling/ Sikkim Himalayas.

2. The Darjeeling Himalayas comprise some of the most landslide prone areas in the country and is also today, a densely populated area. I daresay, that landslides seem to be a hazard which receives the least attention in disaster management perhaps due to the fact that it affects lesser numbers and then, even those affected ie the people living in these hills are apathetic and accept the hazard as a part of life in the mountains.

3. With an annual rainfall of 3000mm, landslides may well be a part of life in the Darjeeling Himalayas and it may be practicably impossible to prevent ALL landslides. But as you would agree, a consistent, multi-pronged and aggressive attack against this hazard can prevent a large number of landslides, mitigate many others and also delay/decrease erosion in these mountains to a significant degree. Sadly, such a holistic approach towards landslide prevention (involving awareness programs, short to long term landslide prevention measures, such as afforestation, correction of drainage problems etc) has never been undertaken in these hills and is definitely the need of the hour.

4. This year we have been lucky thus far; as rainfall has been less than the monthly average both in July and August and except for some landslides in the month of June we have remained virtually unscathed. But this should not lull us into a false sense of security. In the NDMA meeting held in Shillong on the 10-11Jun2008, it was clearly told that we should expect an increase in rainfall to the tune of 20-30% in the northeast, in the years ahead, while at the same time the number of rainy days would decrease, causing more intense rainfall. So rather than remain inert during periods of less rain or in the ensuing winter months, it is now that we must work overtime to buttress up our defenses against landslides in the future.

5. In this regard, may I bring to your notice that “the paradigm shift” to prevention, mitigation and preparedness is yet to see the light of day at the district and subdivision level where disaster management is still limited ONLY to “relief”. Despite STH shouting hoarse about landslide prevention for a year now, literally no preventive work or awareness programs have been done in the whole district. The sharp increase in the number of anthropogenic landslides have only added a new dimension to our problem, with landslides creeping into our densely populated urban areas .(sketches of landslide areas in Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Kurseong and Mirik towns are available at http://www.savethehills.blogspot.com).

6. With the monsoons almost over, it is most important that we take full advantage of the dry period (Oct08-June09) ahead and initiate landslide prevention measures immediately so as to be better prepared for the rains in 2009 and later. Alarm bells have already been sounded by several prominent scientists about the dire state of the hills, and enough valuable time and money have been frittered away in workshops, meetings and surveys - the recommendations of which have seldom been implemented. Therefore, it is high time that a sustained landslide prevention program together with an intense awareness campaign be commenced at the grass root level (ie district and sub-divisional level) in Darjeeling district without further delay, if we are to avoid a major landslide disaster in the hills in the foreseeable future.

Yours sincerely,

(Praful Rao)
Wg Cdr (retd)
Convener
SaveTheHills

Copy to:-
a) Gen NC Vij (Retd) - Vice Chairman, NDMA

b) Shri KM Singh (Retd) – Member , NDMA

c) Shri ML Meena(IAS), Principal Secretary, Disaster Management Dept,Govt of West Bengal

d) Shri Surendra Gupta (IAS)-District Magistrate, Darjeeling

____________________________________________

comment by praful rao

Hard copies of the above email have been couriered to all the above addressees and should be on their respective desks latest by Monday, 22Sep2008

HAPPY BIRTHDAY STH

STH is one year old today, 15Sep2008.

Looking back, I can tell you we have come a long way...
looking forward, I must tell you we have much to do before anything even remotely connected with landslide prevention starts happening in our hills.
But we must persist - we are where we are because of our own lack of awareness, apathy and disinterest for decades so to expect things to change in a year or even in a decade would be foolish.
In the next year, STH will hopefully be a registered body and that should give us resources to work more effectively in this field - and light up an area which has been in the dark for too long.

My sincere thanks to all those who helped in different ways or made meaningful contributions in the past year; I look forward more interaction with all of you next year and in the years ahead.

praful rao

Whatever happened after this??

While perambulating the web in search of articles on our landslide issue, I came across this one - I did not read it when it appeared in 2003 but having read it now, I can't help wondering whatever happened after the article was published?

The sad truth is : NOTHING
__________________________________________
Excerpt from Times of India 16Jul2003

Darjeeling hills doomed: Geologists

KOLKATA: Geologists examining frequent landslides in West Bengal's Darjeeling hills fear that in about 75 years the vagaries of nature could destroy most of this popular summer getaway.

The forecast, made by the Geological Survey of India (GSI) in a report, came as a rude blow to the state government, coming as it did after 24 people were killed by landslides in the region this month.

"We have received the distressing GSI report on the future of Darjeeling hills. We are examining the options to limit the damage to the hills," state Relief Minister Hafiz Alam Sairani said.

The report was presented to Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya on Tuesday by Public Works Department (PWD) Minister Amar Chowdhury after his return from Darjeeling, some 700 km north of here.

According to the report, vast stretches of the Darjeeling hills and its many hill resorts like Darjeeling town, Kurseong and Mirik may not survive beyond 75 years.

The future of Kurseong and its adjoining areas, where several prominent public schools are located, seemed to be the most bleak.

This was primarily because huge deposits of loose soil covering the rocky foundation were washed away with the rains, causing the landslides.

Deforestation, the blocking of natural drainage systems and thoughtless construction had also weakened the soil of the hills.

The GSI did not hold out much hope for the arterial Hill Cart Road, connecting Darjeeling and Kurseong with Siliguri town that has the nearest rail and air services.

The road suffers multiple landslides every year and remains closed to traffic for about two months for repairs. It is closed once again, resulting in thousands of tourists, who chose not to take risky detours, being stranded in Darjeeling.

The GSI said a more stable road could be built – if the road is re-laid on the rocky foundation after 25 metres of loose soil on which it stands is dug up.

The state has asked the centre for Rs 60 million to repair the road.

_________________________________

praful rao

Media coverage : Bringing our story to the world.

Over the many weeks that STH has been in existence, one of the things I have had to do is write-
firstly on this blog, then to a varied lot of people amongst whom are scientists, students, NGOs, government officials and then just ordinary people who are interested in our plight. Last but not least I have been writing to the print media and many papers have carried the story of a hazard which has remained unknown and ignored for too long.
Recently the above issue of Darjeelingtimes.com (www.darjeelingtimes.com) carried the story in print (green dot). Unfortunately I have not been able to locate the online version of the story on the website.
Also, TEHELKA (www.tehelka.com) a prominent national magazine carries the story in it's most recent issue (print and online version) ; for those interested in reading it, the link for the Tehelka article is here

praful rao

Aug2008 - yet another peaceful month

As I had blogged earlier, July 2008 turned out to be a very peaceful month.. a little deficient rain and no major landslides ....
And so it turned out in Aug2008; less than normal rainfall, no major landslides and no known deaths. Placed below is the rainfall data for Aug 2007 and 2008:-


Total rainfall (Aug2007) :- 506mm
Total rainfall (Aug2008) :- 597mm

Monthly average rainfall for AUG (10 years average) :- 647mm
(from http://wbagrimarketingboard.gov.in/Area/Rain.html)

Technically, September is a month when the monsoons recede and rainfall diminishes - let's hope that is true but just as a reminder how horribly wrong things can go wrong with weather these days....
The recent floods in Bihar were a result of excessive rain ie it because it rained a full 500% more than the monthly average rain (source CNN). Imagine that!!!

praful rao

_________________________________________

My thanks to Compuset, Darjeeling for the rainfall data