Depression turns into Cyclone (RASHMI)

Cyclone brings rain rage

OUR SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

Calcutta, Oct. 26: A cyclone called Rashmi is inching towards coastal Bengal, carrying with it the threat of heavy rain in Calcutta though the city does not fall in the storm’s path projected till late this evening. The Met office said a deep depression over west-central Bay of Bengal, which caused Saturday’s rain, had intensified into a cyclone and was headed for the Bengal-Bangladesh coast near Sagar Island. Cyclone Rashmi, rated in the low-intensity Category 1 till this evening, is expected to make landfall between 8 and 9.30am on Monday. “The cyclone now lies about 350km south of Calcutta and is expected to hit the Bengal-Bangladesh coast on Monday morning. The cyclone has been named Rashmi,” said G.C. Debnath, the director of the weather section at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Alipore. Met officials said gusty winds at speeds between 60 and 80kmph were expected along the Bengal coast, along “with heavy to very heavy rain” on Monday. Officials also warned of heavy rain in Calcutta. The officials said tonight that the cyclone was proceeding in a north north-eastern direction and was expected to move into Bangladesh soon after hitting land. “Calcutta is not in the path of the cyclone. But it will cause rains in the city. We are keeping a close watch on the movement of the cyclone,” an official said. But he added that since 350 kilometres lay between the cyclone and land, a shift in course could not be ruled out. The district magistrates of East Midnapore, South 24-Parganas, North 24-Parganas and West Midnapore have been asked to take precautionary measures, finance minister Asim Dasgupta said. ________________________ Extract from India Meteorological Website (http://www.imdkolkata.gov.in) CYCLONE WARNING BULLETIN NO. 2 Date and Time of Issue : 27TH October 2008 at 0100 hours IST. Information on Cyclone: The Cyclonic Storm “Rashmi” over Northwest Bay of Bengal moved rapidly in a North – Northeasterly Direction and lay centered at 2030 hrs IST of 26th october, 2008 near latitude 20.5 deg. North , longitude 88.5 deg. East and about 230 km south of Kolkata. Forecast : FURTHER INTENSIFICATION : Will intensify further. DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT : Will move in a North-Northeasterly direction. EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA : Cross West Bengal – Bangladesh Coast around 89.0 Deg East EXPECTED TIME OF LANDFALL : by tomorrow, Monday, 27th October Morning. ________________________ HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING Heavy to very heavy rain likely to occur at isolated places in Coastal Orissa and coastal districts of West Bengal during next 12 hours. Heavy rain also likely to occur at isolated places over Tripura, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 36 hrs. Heavy rain also likely to occur at isolated places over Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours. ____________________________________________________ Comment by praful rao Judging by the predicted track, hopefully RASHMI will also miss us as did cyclones SIDR (Oct2007) and NARGIS (May2008) in the past. What never ceases to worry me is, what sort of defense mechanism do we have in the hills (except of course fervent prayer) against any of these monsters moving in our direction??

A worrisome development today (26Oct2008)

Placed below is the latest satellite photo from the India Meteorological Dept website. It shows unseasonal rain creeping up our way in the form of a depression in the Bay of Bengal.
It is just this type of weather phenomenon that we should watch out and be prepared for.

Severe Weather Warnings
Date: OCTOBER 26, 2008

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER COASTAL AREAS OF WEST BENGAL DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTH EASTERN STATES AND SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL AND SIKKIM DURING NEXT 48 HOURS AND OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS, KERALA ,TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHERRY AND NORTH COASTAL ORISSA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 55-65 KMPH GUSTING TO 75 KMPH ARE LIKELY ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL AND ORISSA COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH ALONG AND OFF THESE COASTS. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.

(http://imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm)

(Italics are mine)

praful rao

The RTI application and follow up

The RTI Act2005, is one of the most progressive pieces of legislation in our democracy. Despite the fact that the efficacy of the act has to an extent been watered down, I am glad to tell you that it is still is a weapon worth using.
I had asked for some information from the district administration, regarding Landslide Hazards in Darjeeling district on 19Aug2008. Having received no reply by the due date, I queried the State Commission recently by email. Placed below is my RTI application and the reply


praful rao

Wither SaveTheHills (STH)??

I haven't updated this blog for sometime now and the reasons are two fold:-

• 2008 was an extremely lucky year as far as landslides . With less than average rainfall in Jul/Aug and highly deficient rainfall in Sep2008 we escaped with just a few slides in the month of Jun2008.
  Quite naturally (and very happily too!) there were no washed away bridges to photograph or grim stories to recall. Good for us and I hope we are as lucky in the years ahead too!!
  
  
• Hidden behind the seemingly dormant and inactive period, there has been a virtual storm in STH - with a flurry of behind the scene activities taking place:-
  a) So on 21Sep2008, we had a meeting at the local community hall and STH today is an NGO. We are in the process of registering the body as a society. I will in the course of time post brief member profiles of all the STH executive members.
  b) Besides working towards raising awareness about landslides in the Darjeeling and Sikkim hills, STH took on a different role on 18Oct2008.
  Hearing the plea of a young hardworking but under-privileged student, Subash Chhetri, from Sinji a remote village in Kalimpong subdivision, who is currently doing his B. Tech (agriculture) in Uttar Banga Krishi Vishwa Vidylaya, Cooch Behar, STH raised money from donors and gifted the student with a laptop. The seven donors included individuals and institutions from Sikkim and Kalimpong.

  We also used the occasion to remind people that it was the 40 anniversary of the Oct 1968 disaster in these hills when thousands died in landslides. To commemorate this, STH is organizing a national level workshop on Landslide Hazards in Darjeeling on 21 Nov 2008. Prof Leszek Starkel a world renowned geographer who has been studying landslides in this area for the past 40 years will be the Chief Guest as well as main speaker. Other resource persons will be drawn from North Bengal University, Border Roads Task Force and STH. Representatives from Sikkim will also attend. Officials from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and State Disaster Management Authority are also expected to attend.

With the Landslide Hazard Workshop coming up on 21Nov2008 at Southfield (formerly Loreto) College, we will be busy and the posts may slow down for some time; HOWEVER I would like to reassure everyone that STH is very much alive and kicking.
I leave you with a photograph from the small ceremony where we gave away the laptop.
(That's STH Exec member, Ms Gayatri Kharel, a structural engineer presenting the laptop to Subash Chhetri, B Tech student)


praful rao

Nature's mood swings: Sept rainfall data analysis

Actual rainfall Sep2007 : 771mm
Actual rainfall Sep2008 : 172mm
Average rainfall Sept : 368mm (http://wbagrimarketingboard.gov.in/Area/Rain.html)

• Placed above please find the rainfall data of Darjeeling for the month of Sep2007/08.
  September is a month when the monsoons begin their withdrawal from the country as such the average rainfall for Sep is normally less than the 600mm odd which is the approx average for the other monsoon months. Yet, as is evident above the variation in the rainfall seems almost impossible to believe.
  Is this caused by global warming?? I don't know but here are some astonishing facts which emerge from the above table:-
  
  a) In Sep2007 we did have exceptionally heavy rainfall ie more than double the monthly average.
  b) In 3 days (05Sep-07Sep2007) it rained more than the monthly average.
  c) In Sep 2008 we had deficient rainfall ie less than half the monthly average.
  d) On a single day (06Sep2007) last year, it rained more (187mm) than it did the entire month this year (172mm)

Little wonder then that all the major landslides in the district and Sikkim occurred between 05-7Sep2007 and it was providence alone that stopped the rain thereafter.

This year we have been exceptionally lucky as far as landslides go.. but let us not depend on the luck factor alone!!

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Comment by praful rao
My thanks to Compuset Darjeeling for the rainfall data.