When storms change their mind - Bay of Bengal 26-29July2026

A low pressure area (see above) formed in the Bay of Bengal around the 25/26July2026 which quickly intensified into a depression and thereafter into a deep depression, more or less in the same area. 
The forecast track of the depression was initially in a NWly path:

 

The subsequent path followed by the storm and forecast by the IMD are shown (all images from  https://mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/cycloneinformation.php):

The latest position of the storm is shown below: it is located South West of where it formed. 

Updated track of the storm as it traversed the breadth of the country (01Aug2026)

Praful Rao
SaveTheHIlls
savethehills@gmail.com
9475033744

First CYLONE of 2020 in the Bay of Bengal?

As per IMD (NWP), we might be heading for our second brush with a cyclone in the month of MAY after a gap of 11 years. I still have vivid memories of CYLCONE AILA which hit us in May2009 and left scars which have not healed till date.
Placed below is the forecast of the storm from the NWP:

We r watching the developments closely and have already alerted concerned departments. CYCLONE AILA was bad but this time it's worse, because over and above the cyclone we have another unwelcome visitor - COVID19 is doing the rounds among us.
Do remember that these are NWP charts and by 16May2020 we are likely to get much more detailed forecast tracks from IMD as well as other websites such as JTWC
Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya

Update 1

From Weather.com: Cyclone in Bay of Bengal (May2020)

Update 2 (1200h/16May2020)

Above track has now been formally announced by IMD in a RSMC bulletin

Update 3
Warning No 1 from the JTWC

Update 4

Cyclone 'Amphan' was born yesterday as the depression strengthened and it has since become a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) which is supposed to make landfall near DIGHA on 20May2020 as a VSCS. STH has been conducting awareness workshops on the cyclone both on social networks as well as on local TV.

PS: That's my dog, Kaali in the photo. She follows me like a shadow :)

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

Cyclone 'FANI' - the first cyclone of 2019 to hit Indian Coast (track from JTWC -27Apr2019)

TRACK OF CYCLONE 'FANI' FROM FROM JTWC
STH posts alerts/tracks of relevant storms and extreme weather which will affect the Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalayas directly on the 'HAZARD ALERT (HA)' What's APP group so as to provide EW to communities and people who would be impacted.
HA was formed by STH two monsoons ago and today with 183 members many of whom are from the local media, NGOs and govt officials, we hope the EW message in the age of social media can reach a large number of people in time so that lives will be saved.
We will, however ALSO post info and pertinent data regarding significant storms so as to maintain a record of extreme events affecting this region.

Update as on 03May2019

Last track and warning (No 27) from JTWC- 04MAy2019

Bullet points on Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) 'FANI':

• First Cyclone in Bay of Bengal in 2019. Time span from 27Apr2019 till 04May2019.
• Was the strongest cyclone in the Bay in 20yrs. One million evacuated in Odisha.
• Airports were shut down and trains cancelled and both PM Modi and CM of Bengal monitored FANI closely from control rooms.
• Became a super-typhoon for a short duration with wind speeds touching 300kmph and made landfall near Puri in the early morning of 03May with windspeeds of 200kmph.
  Extensive damage in Odisha
• However, minimal damage in W Bengal which was also along the track of FANI.
• It quickly weakened after landfall and rainfall in Kolkata was much less than expected.
• Fatalities remained minimal and was less than 10
• The effect of FANI in Darjeeling-Sikkim was mild with light rain (Kalimpong -25mm) and hardly any change in wind speeds.
• The storm weakened and moved towards the North Eastern states where wind velocities again reached 100kmph. Considerable damage was reported in Meghalaya
• By 05May, the storm had completely dissipated.

 



Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling - Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch : Cyclone 'Maarutha' is born (16Apr2017) and its early demise (Update of 17Apr2017)

The storm in the Bay of Bengal intensified into a full blown cyclone and was christened 'MAARUTHA' today. This is the first named storm of the 2017 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone season.

Update of 17Apr2017 (Extracts from JTWC bulletin)
' SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR TOUNGUP AND IS RAPIDLY DECAYING.'
JTWC has also issued its final warning on the cyclone considering it no longer significant.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong district,
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya

STH Stormwatch : Depression in the Bay of Bengal (21Oct2016)

Updates will be posted as necessary

Update 1 (JTWC IR image of two storms in our region)

Predicted storm track (shown in RED) is an approximation (NOT accurate!).

Update 2 (23Oct2016)

Update 3 (23Oct2016) - IMD predicted track

 
Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (17Nov2015) : Update on the low position

As per IMD the well marked Low Pressure Area now lies off the Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu coast (see above).
Had it moved inland it would have weakened quickly - now that it is still in the Bay of Bengal, I hope it does not intensify further. The storm though not a depression or cyclone has caused enough fatalities and damage in Tamil Nadu already.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH Stormwatch : Update on Cyclone Komen (30Jul2015 - Night)

Excerpt from "All India Weather Inference" (2030hrs IST)
"The cyclonic storm 'KOMEN' over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 30th July, 2015 close to Bangladesh coast near Lat. 22.4 °N and Long. 91.3° E, about 20 km east of Hatia (Bangladesh).
The cyclonic storm is in the process of crossing Bangladesh coast between Hatia and Sandwip (Bangladesh) as the northern part of the cloud band already lies over land, The entire process of landfall would take a few hours.
After landfall, it would move initially northwestwards and then west­ northwestwards and weaken gradually."

Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (update) : Are we under rating Phailin?

Tropical Storm Risk venture a UK based organization has  categorized Phailin as a 'Super Cyclone' (see above); this seems to be more or less in keeping with the report of US Navy's JTWC (excerpt below), which pegs the wind speeds higher than IMetD forecasts :-

"WTIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 85.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT" 

   (130 KT = 240 kmph; 160 KT = 296 kmph) 

Meanwhile at approx 1600h IST, it has started raining in Kolkata which lies on the
periphery of the cyclone, at places moderately and at other places there is a steady 
drizzle. 
The IR image of Phailin at 1600h (IST) is placed below.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling.

STH stormwatch (update): Very Severe Cyclone Phailin (11Oct2013)

Praful Rao

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling.

Cyclone MAHASEN update : 15May2013

Source


Praful Rao,
Kalimpong 

Cyclone Mahasen in the Bay of Bengal (11May2013)

Source
Praful Rao,
Kalimpong

STH StormWatch (18Nov2012 update) : The Depression becomes a Cyclone

The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center has upgraded the storm last evening and is now named as Tropical Cyclone 03 (see top).
IMD cyclone page has posted a forecast track image and shows the storm veering away from its earlier NW track to a South westerly path.

Praful Rao

STH Stormwatch : The Gathering Storm II (Cyclone Nilam)

Chasing a storm on the Internet - Cyclone NILAM(26Oct-02Nov2012)

More PowerPoint presentations from praful rao

• What is plainly evident is that with broadband internet and through various websites one can observe and track a major weather event and as such be warned, well in advance.
• What is to be borne in mind is that IR images alone will not give an accurate or complete picture of the storm.
  
  
  
  Praful Rao