STH stormwatch: A cyclone to threaten India's financial hub in the midst of a pandemic

JWTC forecast on the storm in the Arabian sea

Excerpt from IMD forecast

'The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Southeast & adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area concentrated into a Depression over Eastcentral & adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea. and lay centred about 400 km southwest of Panjim (Goa), 700 km south-southwest of Mumbai ( Maharashtra) and 930 km south-southwest of Surat (Gujarat).
It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression over Eastcentral & adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over Eastcentral Arabian Sea during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move nearly northwards initially till 02nd June morning and recurve northnortheastwards and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts between Harihareswar (Raigarh, Maharashtra) and Daman during evening/night of 03 rd June,2020.'

 

Like AMPHAN hitting Kolkata on 20May2020, this storm too comes at a time when Mumbai has the highest rate of COVID19 infections in the country and is under lockdown.

UPDATE 1

It is still a Depression but will be called Cyclone 'Nisarga', when it intensifies into a cyclone. It is amazing how two consecutive megastorms (Cyclone 'Amphan' and this one) are targeting two megacities (Kolkata and Mumbai), this one with a population of 20 million and both in the midst of a pandemic.

UPDATE 2

The deep depression has now become a cyclone (NISARGA)  and while the track on the latest RSMC bulletin remains the same as earlier, information on the wind speeds and storm surge is as above.

UPDATE 3

First warning from JTWC has finally been issued.

Update 4

JTWC issued only 4 warnings for Cyclone Nisarga. The fourth and the last is below:

Rainfall records

Nira devghar,Pune dist - 147mm

Panshet,Pune dist - 137mm

Mahabaleswar - 214mm

Koyna Nagar - 156mm

Bhimashankar,Pune dist - 117mm

Khandala - 88mm

Praful Rao
Kalimpong district
Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya