At the year's end, a sombre warning for the New Year : Facing the new abnormal

GENEVA, 29 December 2015 – In the wake of the extreme tornadoes that struck the United States over Christmas, freak snowfalls in Mexico and heavy flooding in South America and the United Kingdom, Ms. Margareta Wahlström, head of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction today urged governments to take more prevention actions to reduce human and economic losses caused by weather related disasters.
“Last March, the world met in Sendai, Japan and agreed on a new global framework for disaster risk reduction to better protect the world against increasing disasters. The Sendai Framework includes for the first time seven targets that will considerably help nations and communities to better manage climate risks,” Ms. Wahlström said.
"Prevention measures including upgrading early warning systems to deal with the new climate variability, revising building codes to ensure more resilience of critical infrastructure such as schools, hospital and roads, and more investment in flood defences are critical to protect more people against disaster impacts. We have no time to lose as weather-related disasters continue to increase, affecting millions of people” she added.
Over the week end, tornadoes and storms killed more than 20 people in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Illinois, and flattened hundreds of buildings and houses. “ More people are at risk due to increased urbanization,” said Ms. Wahlström. “Reducing spatial density of single family housing and increasing the resilience of houses against heavier wind load can reduce tornado impacts.”
Meanwhile, the intense floods in South America are considered as the worst in the past ten years, forcing more than 170,000 people to evacuate in Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay.
“The abnormal flooding is consistent with the prediction made by the World Meteorological Organization last November. We cannot ignore science. Their findings need to be better included in long-term policies,” said Ms Wahlström.
Last month, the World Meteorological Organization warned that the majority of international climate outlook models indicated that the 2015-16 El Niño was set to strengthen before the end of the year, causing more flooding and more droughts. It said that the ongoing El Nino event was poised to be among the three strongest since 1950 -- the1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98 versions also caused a rise in climate hazards.
The El Niño phenomenon, which is characterized by a warming of the Pacific Ocean, is also triggering a rise in drought in different parts of the Americas. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS) has warned that it has sparked the worst droughts in decades in Central America and Haiti, and that they will continue into 2016.
In Mexico, snowfall over the weekend blanketed 32 towns in the state of Chihuahua, which borders the US states of Texas and New Mexico, with some places hit by accumulations of 30 centimetres and temperatures of -18 Celsius.
Further afield, December has seen communities in Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire in the United Kingdom swamped by rising waters with damages that could exceed UK£1.5 billion according to financial analysts.The British government has announced a major review of the country’s flood prevention strategy, while Environment Agency deputy chief executive David Rooke said it would have to look at ways to flood-proof homes, as well as examining traditional defences, as the United Kingdom was "moving into a period of unknown extremes".
“The repetitive floods in the United Kingdom and unusual snow storms in Mexico are alerting the world about how difficult it is to predict global warming impacts and climate change,” said Ms. Wahlström.
Source 

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Darjeeling district

India Meteorological Department (IMD) website gets a facelift

To so many visitors of India Meteorological Department's (IMD) website, the above homepage of GOI's official portal of the Met Dept was a very familiar sight.
Well, times-are-a-changin' and what you will see when you visit the website (http://imd.gov.in) now,  is this:-

Being an avid user of IMD website for tracking storms as well as getting a wealth of other information, I found the new website a welcome change...
It is much more user friendly and is really well designed; which places a tons of information at just the click of (a mouse) button away- though I did not notice any new information or links, the new webpage is a far cry from the earlier one.

CONGRATS IMD !!

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Chennai Flood Disaster Catastrophe of December 2015-Are you listening? - Dr RK Bhandari

The worst is over and the city of Chennai in the State of Tamil Nadu in India is limping back to normalcy after the unprecedented flood catastrophe of December 2015. The whole country applauds the exceptional grit and grace with which the citizens of Chennai fought the fury of the floods as one single family of friendly strangers! When the Indian Armed Forces, the NDRF Battalions, the Paramilitary Forces, the State Police and the common men intermingled with the victims of the flood-ravaged city of Chennai on the mission to save lives, by heroic deeds they won the admiration and gratitude of the nation as a whole. India can be justly proud of the inspiring examples set out by the rescue teams and the citizens, in the defiance of death and destruction. The ensuing trail of success stories, which will be retold for generations to come, has reaffirmed peoples’ faith in India’s capacity to manage the post-disaster phase of the cataclysmic events.

Now imagine the dreadful scenario in the flood-ravaged Chennai without the timely and decisive interventions of the post-disaster response teams. The loss of lives, the number of those injured, the count of the homeless, trauma of the victims, damages to the infrastructure, the cost of recovery and construction and pressure of demand on local administration would have been several folds higher. On the other hand, imagine the scenario which could have developed to our advantage after implementation of preventive and mitigation measures in tune with the experiences gained and the lessons learned from as many as six major flood disaster events in the last 40 years. The loss of lives, damages to the infrastructure, the hefty relief package of Rs 1940 crores and the astronomical sums of money now required for reconstruction could have been drastically curtailed, if not altogether avoided. We all know that prevention and mitigation pay and yet it is unfortunate that those at the helm of affairs still prefer to pay for the end-of-the-pipe solutions from the public funds at the expense of the basic human needs.

By not taking recourse to the prevention and mitigation route, contrary to the stated policy, even the Central Government does not do justice with its own commitment to the people of India made in the National Disaster Management Act of 2005. The Act, which was enacted about the same time as the last Chennai flood disaster of December 2005, had promised to the nation a paradigm shift from the relief-centric approach to the culture of prevention and mitigation. With ten years of lead time since the last major flood disaster, the State Government was expected to feel the pain of disasters and take the Act more seriously.

Another stated strategy of the Government of India is to shift the focus from development to sustainable economic development. The X Five Year Plan clearly mentioned that the planned expenditure on disaster prevention and mitigation will be coupled with the Calamity Relief Fund. There was a major shift of Focus in the XI plan which laid emphasis on integration of disaster mitigation with development planning. If the government would have taken its own strategy seriously, the severe flooding of the areas surrounding Perumbakkam because of the construction of the IT Corridor on the filled-up lake could have been avoided. The flooding of Mudichur, Velachery, and several other areas are not a matter of surprise to those who Chennai because they had encroached the wetlands and the river basins. The city’s largest mall, Phoenix, is on a lake-bed — Velachery.  In 1976 floods too, Adyar over-topped its banks invading houses by several feet precisely because of the stream encroachment.

There is no denying the fact that for economic and infrastructure development, land has to be found. The national challenge lies in using the land in a manner that construction and mitigation measures are planned, designed and implemented as a single package. This should have been done when the major bus terminal was built in the flood-prone Koyambedu or when the Chennai airport was built on the floodplains of the River Adyar. Building a Mass Rapid Transit System over the Buckingham Canal and several automobile and telecom SEZs and many housing estates, over the erstwhile water bodies, were less of engineering in development and more about the recipe for a disaster. By hindsight, it seems clear that the government should have walked the talk by integrating disaster mitigation with planning for sustainable development. Reportedly over 300 water bodies have already been lost to urbanization and construction. The 16 tanks belonging to the Vyasarpadi chain downstream of Rettai Eri have reportedly met with a similar fate.

All the blame cannot be placed on either the Government or the Extreme Weather Events. We the people are equally responsible for our compromising positions when it comes to our self-interest. Often times, we pressure administration for bending of rules and regulations for our narrow gains. According to a report submitted by CMDA to the Madras High Court, there are over 1.5 lakh illegal structures in the city, hazardous also to the city drainage. When High Court ordered demolition, the people appealed to the Supreme Court and sought stay-orders. Naturally, we need stricter laws and swift disposal of such cases. It is high time people realize that disasters drain our resources, sap our strength, halt the pace of economic development, rob the posterity of India’s cultural heritage and  inflict lifelong suffering on the victims, especially in the low-income group.

Those responsible for the above acts of omission and commission must be held accountable not only for what wrong they did, but also for what they should have done, which they did not do. The professionals who implemented the above projects were responsible for ensuring that the projects themselves do not become a cause of disasters.

Since it is not in our culture to fix accountability, the civil administration, on the predicted lines, did pre-empt inconvenient and hard questions about public safety by declaring the Chennai 2015 floods as a natural calamity and placed the blame entirely on unprecedented rainfall due to Climate Change, completely ignoring the interplay of numerous other causative factors. The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, even without any investigation, reportedly said “Losses are unavoidable when there's very heavy rain. Swift rescue and relief alone are indicators of a good government.” [1] Earlier also, the Chennai floods of 1969, 1976, 1985, 1996, 1998, 2005 and 2015 were attributed to the heavy rainfall events. Does that mean that factors such as unrestrained and unplanned urbanization, non-engineered and illegal construction, encroachment of water bodies and low-lying areas had no role to play?  It is true that the heavy rainfall forced authorities to release 30,000 cusecs from the Chembarambakkam reservoir into the Adyta river over two days, causing flooding and submergence. But the question to ask is why such situations could not have been anticipated and provided for in project design?  How can one explain the flooding of Koyambedu and the neighbourhood other than by concluding that the related storm water drain projects failed to account for the built-environment, the altered urban landscape and the water logging data of the previous cataclysmic flood events?

 It is only when the authorities ignore such ground realities and try to hide behind the Extreme Weather Events as the sole cause that we keep working in the comfort zones of business as usual, take recourse to the obligatory post-disaster relief-centric approach when needed, and keep re-reaffirming our faith in the merit of disaster prevention and mitigation , as parrots do.

There are no simple solutions to the problems of flooding in the city of Chennai which have been allowed to develop over the period of many decades. Instead of overlooking the wrong doings of the past and throwing blame on heavy rainfall, the political masters, bureaucrats, professionals, the civic officials should come out of the denial mode, own the responsibility and concede with humility that they have failed to walk the talk. It is time to learn from the past experiences and put institutional mechanisms and Standing Operating Procedures in place to ensure that disaster mitigation measures get firmly embedded in all the future project designs.

The large scale flood hazard maps and hydrology maps of the City of Chennai should be revised on priority. The corresponding large scale maps should clearly mark problematic areas, buildings and infrastructure at risk. These maps should guide the revision of the second Masterplan prepared by the Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority. Both, the hazard maps and the Masterplan should be independently peer-reviewed, and thereafter the future flood risk scenarios should be projected with sensitivity to Climate Change, highlighting the problem areas in the backdrop of the experiences gained during the December 2015 flooding. The National Guidelines on Flood Management issued by the National Disaster Management Authority in January 2005 would need revision and adoption, mutatis mutandis.

 All the illegal constructions should be demolished by expediting pending court cases.

 Extreme Weather Events and heavy rainfall are going to be matters of concern all the time and should not ever be taken as unforeseen happenings. The extreme rainfall events like the one which pounded the State of Tamil Nadu and triggered the catastrophe will have to fully accounted for while formulating preventive and mitigation strategies. Modern technologies should be deployed to improve weather, rain and flood forecasting.

India has an ambitious blueprint of economic development and one of the high profile programmes is development of Smart Cities. Ponneri of Tamil Nadu has been identified for development as a Smart City. Hopefully, those responsible for its planning carefully study why the airport was closed and several iconic companies had to shut their operations. The functioning of giant software exporters like TCS, Infosys and HCL and automobile giants like Renault Nissan, Yamaha, BMW and Ashok Leyland were also badly affected by the floods. In the fiercely competitive world with international commitments, India cannot afford the repeat of such sad experiences ever again in future. An empowered High Powered Committee should be constituted to approve the plans of Ponneri, and be accountable to the nation.

 Because of the flood catastrophe, leading newspaper, The Hindu was not published for the first time since its inception in 1878. Future Quiz competitions in the schools of Tamil Nadu will make sure that the younger generation remembers the Catastrophic Chennai flood of December 2015 at least for this reason. The Prime Minister of India gave a post-disaster package of Rs 1940 crore against more than Rs 5000 crore sought by the State Government. Why not think of a mitigation package of Rs 20 000 crores to put a lid on such disasters forever and live happily thereafter!

______________________________________________________

Prof RK Bhandari is a distinguished alumnus from IIT Mumbai, a Fellow of Indian National Academy of Engineering  and a recipient of the coveted Varne’s Medal for Excellence in Research and Practice of Landslides.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

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Tamil Nadu rainfall (updated 05Dec2015) : Maps from IMERG and a video

Excerpts from IMERG (09-16Nov2015)
Rainfall : upto 550mm along south eastern coast
Fatalities : 71 (59 in Chennai)

Excerpts from IMERG (29Nov-02Dec2015)
Rainfall : over 400mm
Fatalities : 188

Total Rainfall since 01Oct2015 : 1556mm (BBC)
Death toll till date : 280 (BBC)




Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

If this isn't a wake up call, what is? - Chennai (Meenambakam) airport on 02Dec2015

The image above shows aircraft on flooded tarmacs of Meenambakam Airport at Chennai on 02Dec2015.
STH has been monitoring and reporting the storms associated with the NE monsoons in the southern peninsular (see1, 2 and 3) and it is high time we start expecting the unexpected.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Events of Note : Workshop on 'Hydropower, Climate Change and Environmental Justice' in Kalimpong (08 & 9 Dec2015)

 Workshop on   
   
     'Hydropower, Climate Change & Environmental Justice                                 in the Eastern Himalaya'

Venue : Kalimpong Park Hotel

Dates : 08/09Dec2015

Organised by: 

Forum for Policy Dialogue on Water Conflicts in India

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Darjeeling district

                                

STH Stormwatch (26Nov2015) - Another low expected in the Bay of Bengal

Low expected to form in the next 24hrs and most probably Tamil Nadu will get another bashing.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Chasing landslides in the Darjeeling Himalayas (1) - 22Nov2015

STH has over the years endeavored to maintain a historical record of the landslide activity in the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya in this blog since our region happens to be one of the most landslide prone in the world.
In a bid to update our records we will carryout surveys of landslide areas and publish our findings here - they will not be technical documents rather just factual data to highlight the severity of landslides in this region, in a hope that this disaster form will get the importance that it deserves.

27th Mile Landslide

1. Coordinates: N 26°59.913´ E 088°25.898´

2. Elevn : 299m 

3. Date of activation: 01July2015 - triggered by heavy rain

4. Approx size (from Google Earth): 236m X 400m 

5. Likely impact :

National Highway (NH) 10 and possibly Teesta Low Dam Project (TLDP III)

Karmat Landslide

1. Coordinates: N 26°55.749´ E 088°25.782´

2. Elevn: 675m

3. Date of Activation: Not known

4. Approx size (from Google Earth): 374m X 586m 

5. Likely impact:
Road communication from NH10 to Latpanchar cinchona plantation, Sittong 1/2/3 villages.

Sittong (3) Landslide

1. Coordinates: N 26°56.074´ E 088°23.708´

2. Elevn: 1143m

3. Date of Activation/cause : July1999 - triggered by heavy rain 

4. Approx size (from Google Earth): 290m X 1332m 

5. Fatalities : 08 in 1999. 

6. Relocated : 11 families shifted to Namthing Pokhari by Kurseong block office.

7. Planning relocation due to instability : 4 families with 18 members

8. Impacted:

Many acres of orange orchards and broom plants in the area.

A Different Type of Disaster :

Sittong (1/2/3) village was known for its fine oranges which used to flood the market places of Darjeeling district in Dec/Jan and was one of the main cash crops for many of its citizens. During my visit there yesterday, I learnt that for the last 3 years or so the crop production had declined drastically and now in Nov 2015 they were expecting yields, 90% below their optimum levels.

I was told that a peculiar disease had infected all the orange trees, wherein they would start dying from the inside and then a certain insect would lay eggs on the fruit which would make it rot prematurely -  and all this happening more to orange orchards at the lower elevations.

Some villagers went so far as to tell me that in 2016, they would most probably not produce any oranges from Sittong.

Credits:
My thanks to
Sachin Tamang of Kurseong (9832320738)
Dilkumar Rai of Shelpu, Sittong3 (9547280057)
MB Sarki of the Sittong landslide area (9832406234)
for their time and inputs.

Praful Rao,

Kalimpong,

Dist Darjeeling

International Mountain Day (11Dec2015)

For more on the above see here. As a part of the InMI we in Darjeeling will be observing International Mountain Day.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (17Nov2015) : Update on the low position

As per IMD the well marked Low Pressure Area now lies off the Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu coast (see above).
Had it moved inland it would have weakened quickly - now that it is still in the Bay of Bengal, I hope it does not intensify further. The storm though not a depression or cyclone has caused enough fatalities and damage in Tamil Nadu already.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

STH stormwatch (14Nov2015) : 2 storms in the North Indian Ocean

Source

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Impact of humans on landslides : 14th Mile landslides (Kalimpong) in 2002 and now (2015).

The 14th Mile landslides (top) or sinking zone is one of the oldest in Kalimpong and has been featured in this blog earlier
Placed above are 2 Google Earth images of the same landslide zone of 2002 and 2015.
Both are photos were taken in January and the areas numbered 1 and 2 show significant increase in human habitation in the intervening 13yr period between the two photos.
Site 3 shows the 14th Mile landslides which are much bigger in the 2015 image even though we have had deficient rainfall in Kalimpong for 3 consecutive years from 2013 ie we are seeing an increase in landslides even though there is a decrease in precipitation (rainfall data of this region for the last three years is documented month-wise elsewhere in this blog).
Without being overly simplistic, as human activity grows along mountain crests, surface run-off of rain water from paved areas sharply increases the torrents of water charging the mountain streams or jhoras, leading to higher levels of erosion and landslides.
Increasingly, human activity is therefore emerging as a major cause of landslides in the mountains and is undoubtedly the main trigger for all fatal landslides that have taken place in Darjeeling-Sikkim in the recent past.
While it is well within our reach to control these actions and mitigate the landslides, neither the community nor the government (includes politicians) are bothered.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dit Darjeeling

STH stormwatch : Low Pressure forms in the Bay of Bengal - 07Nov2015

A Low Pressure Area has formed in the Bay of Bengal and as per IMD, it is likely to intensify into a well marked low pressure and then become a depression in the next 48hrs.

UPDATE on the storm (2100hrs) on 07Nov2015
IMD has upgraded the storm from a 'Low' to a 'Well Marked' low pressure area which will intensify into a depression in the next day or so

 UPDATE on the storm 08Nov2015

Track of storm is from JTWC

UPDATE (2) on the storm 08Nov2015
IMD has upgraded the storm from a 'well marked low' to a 'depression' in their midday weather bulletin. 
For anyone interested to check Chennai weather live see here 

UPDATE on the storm 09Nov2015

UPDATE (2) on the storm 09Nov2015
The depression intensified into a deep depression and crossed north Tamil Nadu coast at
7.30pm

UPDATE (last)  on the storm 10Nov2015 (evening)
The depression has moved inland and has weakened into a low pressure area and lies north of Tamil Nadu.



Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

A tale of Two Cyclones : Cyclone 'Chapala' followed by Cyclone 'Megh' in the Arabian sea

Cyclones in the Arabian Sea are comparatively less frequent than those in the Bay of Bengal, and it is rare to see two cyclones in that area, riding bumper to bumper and heading towards the same region (ie the Yemen coast) all within a week!
Cyclone 'Megh' has now formed in the Arabian Sea, hard on the heels of 'Chapala' which dumped almost a decades' worth of rainfall in the deserts of war-torn Yemen a few days ago. The forecast track from JTWC show 'Megh' heading to the same region.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Rainfall data Darjeeling and Sikkim Oct2015 and IMD End of Season Report

 

The SW Monsoons of 2015 have withdrawn from the country as a whole. October 2015 again was a month of deficient rainfall for the entire Darjeeling- Sikkim Himalaya.
No landslides were reported during this month.

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Good news for Darjeeling -Sikkim Himalaya : Landslide Prediction Study by Ulster University in early 2016.

Ulster University (UK) has secured funding for a new study focusing on landslide prediction in the Indian Himalayas, which will use novel techniques to help predict massive landslide disasters and save lives.

The team of researchers from Ulster University, and other collaborators, will use their expertise in sensor development, landslide physics and impacts of hazardous weather throughout the project. They will explore state of the art technical and functional requirements for a novel landslide prediction system using low-cost, high-density sensor networks and smart landslide prediction techniques.

India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI) and is supported by the Department for Employment and Learning. It was secured in close collaboration with key project partners including the University of East Anglia, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India Institute of Technology Hyderabad and University College London.

Ulster University's Professor Gerard Parr said: "This specific study will focus on predicting massive landslides due to extreme weather events in remote mountainous areas in the Indian Himalayas, namely in the Darjeeling region where unfortunately landslides have historically claimed many lives and damaged infrastructure.
"The results of this study will not only help to underpin critical landslide prediction solutions for remote rural Indian communities but for other countries around the world, including the UK, where flooding and extreme weather conditions can result in landslides and also threaten human life, lifestock and economic infrastructures.
"We are delighted to have been successful in our bid for this Feasibility Study which builds on aspects of our previous research within the India-UK Advanced Technology Centre (IU-ATC), the largest ICT project of its kind between UK and India."
The project will be led by Professor Gerard Parr together with colleagues Professor Sally McClean, Professor Bryan Scotney and Professor Philip Morrow from the Information and Communications Research Group at Ulster University's Coleraine campus. They will be joined by Professor Stephen Hailes who is Chair of Wireless Systems and Deputy Head of Department of Computer Science at University College London, Prof Dave Petley (University of East Anglia- UEA) Pro-Vice Chancellor for Research and Enterprise at UEA and a world authority on Landslide Physics; Dr Christopher Kilburn (UCL) who is the Director of the Aon Benfield Hazard UCL Centre ; Professor Subrat Kar (Indian Institute of Technology New  Delhi) and Professor Uday Desai- Director of Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad. 

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Indian National Academy of Engineering (INAE) Round Table meeting on 'Landslide Risk Reduction' : 04Nov2015

As is known, Indian National Academy of Engineering (INAE), is the apex body for Engineering in the country.
Its Forum on Engineering Interventions for Disaster Mitigation is holding a one day Round Table 2 discussion on Landslide Risk Reduction on 04Nov2015.
The main thrust of the meeting will be on

•  Large scale Landslide Hazard mapping for anticipation of landslide hazards and their mitigation, and 
•  Science, Engineering and Innovation in Landslide Investigation, studies and management.

Venue : Central Road Research Institute(CRRI), New Delhi (near Okhla on the Delhi-Mathura highway.)

You can download the Abridged Recommendations (ii) Recommendations and (iii) The Backgrounder and the Basis Paper of the meeting here

Praful Rao,
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling

Withdrawal of SW Monsoons from this region : 15Oct2015

Though we had a number of low pressure systems and depressions developing in the Bay of Bengal (see blog for details) in 2015, we have had only ONE cyclone (Cyclone Komen) forming in the Bay this year where we normally have around 4-5.
There is much literature available on the internet on the trend in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances in the Bay of Bengal, this is just one such article.


Praful Rao
Kalimpong,
Dist Darjeeling